#202610 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresMicro-DAX FuturesEUREX:FDXS1!priceactiontdsGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not as max bearish as last week but still enough. We are looking at huge support at 22500 and 22000. Tough to short down here tbh. The lowest this big bull trend line can be drawn is around 21700ish, which is a valid target but shorting below 22000 is bad no matter how you look at it. If you could get in early when futures open or if you are still short, nice but otherwise you have to wait for a pullback. Big gap down means shorts are ducked from the r:r perspective. You can never bet on a limit down day. Any short closer to 22600 or 22800 is as good as it gets. Stop has to be 23290 still. Stops 23150 can work too but swinging this is probably the best option. And yes I can be wrong about invalidation targets again and yes we could see a giant squeeze before more downside. current market cycle: bull trend only remains on the monthly chart - daily chart bear trend and close to the bull trend line on the monthly tf key levels for next week: 21700 - 23500 bull case: Bulls got nothing but hope. Any tweet might still be good for a spike but ultimately I expect them to fail. The only thing saving the bulls would be Trump & Israel backing down and that is as likely as the release of ALL the Epstein files. That has not changed and I will not change it just because. Invalidation is below 21700 bear case: Sell the rip market and bears have the best setup for a crash down since 2025-04. Lets. Ducking. Go. We have reached the 50% retracement from the 2025-04 lows to ath and we are close to the bull trend line from the 2022 lows. This is a zone where I expect buyers to step in again and we will likely see W3 soon. W4 could go on for around 2 weeks like W2 and a W3 could bring us down to my ultimate target of 20000. Only a deep recession can break that price. I do think we can do a flush down to maybe 21000 but that’s a bit much for W3 tbh. Tough spot right now to enter new positions. So either join huge momentum to the downside for the big round numbers or wait. Invalidation is above 23500 short term: Give me the black Monday. Again. Want to see it a bit lower and touching the bull trend line around 22000 before W4 (sideways to up). medium-long term - update 2026-03-15: Bull trend line around 22000 will get tested over the next days and I do think we will break it to put us into a bear trend and then likely a prolonged trading range on the monthly chart. I think we can re-visit the 2025-04 lows.