Goldman Sachs raises oil forecasts as extended Hormuz disruption and structural supply risks lift long-term price expectations.Summary:Goldman Sachs lifts oil price forecasts on prolonged Hormuz disruptionBank now assumes flows operate at ~5% capacity for six weeksRecovery expected to take an additional month thereafterStructural risks seen driving higher long-term oil pricesConcentration of supply and spare capacity flagged as key concernStrategic stockpiling likely to increase globallyBrent 2026 forecast raised to $85 (from $77)WTI 2026 forecast lifted to $79 (from $72)Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for 2026, citing an extended disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and growing structural concerns around global supply concentration.In a revised outlook, the bank now assumes that oil shipments through the critical Middle Eastern chokepoint will operate at just 5% of normal capacity for a prolonged six-week period. This represents a more severe and sustained disruption than previously expected. Goldman further anticipates that restoring flows will take an additional month, pointing to a gradual rather than immediate recovery in supply.Analysts say this revised scenario reflects a reassessment of geopolitical risks in the region, with the ongoing conflict raising the probability of extended supply outages. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global energy markets, and even partial closures can have an outsized impact on prices due to its central role in transporting crude exports.Beyond the near-term disruption, Goldman Sachs also highlighted longer-term structural shifts in the oil market. The bank noted that the high concentration of global production and spare capacity, largely centred in a small number of countries, is likely to drive a more sustained risk premium in oil prices. Analysts say this dynamic is expected to encourage increased strategic stockpiling by governments and market participants, reinforcing upward pressure on longer-dated crude prices.Reflecting these changes, Goldman Sachs has lifted its average price forecast for Brent crude in 2026 to $85 per barrel, up from $77 previously. The bank also raised its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast to $79 per barrel, compared with an earlier estimate of $72.The revisions underscore how geopolitical tensions are not only shaping short-term price volatility but are also beginning to influence longer-term expectations for supply security and pricing dynamics. Analysts say that even if flows eventually normalise, the market may retain a higher structural risk premium given the vulnerabilities exposed by recent disruptions. Trump is bogged down in the Middle East, unable to end the war nor free up oil flows This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.