艾莎, AARON KROLIK, TUNG NGO, VICTORIA KIM2026年3月23日新西兰惠灵顿国际机场。新西兰航空公司已取消了约1100架次航班，影响将持续至5月初。 Marty Melville/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThree weeks into a war in the Middle East that is roiling energy markets, Asia is confronting one of the first major consequences of an oil shortage, as jet fuel prices surge to record levels and governments scramble to keep flights running.中东爆发战争三周后，能源市场剧烈动荡，亚洲正面临石油短缺引发的第一批重大后果：航空煤油价格飙升至历史最高水平，各国政府奋力维持航班正常运行。Airlines have canceled thousands of flights, stranding tens of thousands of passengers. Major regional energy suppliers, including China, South Korea and Thailand, are restricting exports, while import-dependent countries like Vietnam are forced to ration and call on others for help.航空公司已取消数千架次航班，数以万计的乘客滞留。包括中国、韩国和泰国在内的主要区域能源供应国开始限制出口，而越南这样高度依赖进口的国家则被迫实施配给，并向他国求援。The accelerating crisis offers a first glimpse of what happens when oil supplies are suddenly choked off by an unexpected crisis with no clear end in sight. The pain is most acute in Asia, where countries rely on Middle Eastern oil and have limited stockpiles, and experts warn that it may foreshadow more disruptions if the war drags on.这场加速发展的危机让人们首次窥见当石油供应因一场出人意料且看不到尽头的危机而突然被掐断时会发生什么。亚洲受冲击最为严重，因为该地区国家依赖中东石油，且战略储备有限。专家警告，如果战争持续拖延，未来可能有更多扰动。“We’re peering into what our gasoline and diesel future is going to look like if this doesn’t get resolved,” said James Noel-Beswick, the head of commodities at Sparta Commodities, a data firm.“如果这场冲突得不到解决，我们将看到汽油和柴油在未来会是什么样子，”数据公司Sparta Commodities大宗商品主管詹姆斯·诺埃尔-贝斯威克表示。“Jet is kind of a canary in the coal mine,” he said.“航空燃油有点像煤矿里的金丝雀，”他说道。The risk of oil shortages rippled across Asia within days after the United States and Israel went to war against Iran, bringing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a halt. About a fifth of the world’s oil flows through the narrow shipping corridor along Iran’s southern coast, and most of it ends up in Asia.在美国和以色列对伊朗开战后几天内，通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮航运完全停摆，石油短缺风险迅速波及整个亚洲。全球约五分之一的石油经由伊朗南部海岸这条狭窄航道运输，其中大部分最终流向亚洲。In Indian cities, people started hoarding liquefied petroleum, widely used for cooking. Bangladesh canceled university classes. The Philippines has moved to a four-day workweek. In Vietnam and Thailand, gas stations posted “sold out” signs as governments with limited stockpiles imposed emergency conservation efforts.在印度城市，人们开始囤积广泛用于烹饪的液化石油气。孟加拉国取消了大学课程。菲律宾转向每周四天工作制。在越南和泰国，加油站贴出“售罄”告示，储备有限的政府纷纷实施紧急节约措施。周四，印度勒克瑙，人们排队等待补充液化石油气罐。Then came a shock no one expected. Jet fuel prices spiked to a record high of more than $200 a barrel, more than doubling the prewar price.随后又有了一个没人预见到的冲击：航空燃油价格飙升至每桶超过200美元的历史新高，比战前价格翻了一倍多。“It is at unprecedented levels,” Nikhil Ravishankar, the chief executive of Air New Zealand, told a local media outlet last week after it canceled around 1,100 flights through early May.“这是前所未有的水平，”新西兰航空首席执行官尼基尔·拉维尚卡上周对当地媒体表示，该公司已取消约1100架次航班，持续到5月初。Jet fuel prices have risen faster and more drastically than the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, which settled at $108.65 a barrel on Thursday — up about 50 percent since the war started.航空燃油价格的上涨速度和幅度远超全球油价基准布伦特原油。周四布伦特原油结算价为每桶108.65美元，自战争开始以来上涨约50%。Jet fuel is often the first refined oil product to run short, in part because it is held to stricter quality standards than other fuels. It must be stored in specialized tanks, making large reserves costly, and it cannot sit for long periods without degrading. As a result, there is less buffer to absorb supply disruptions. And unlike gasoline or diesel, which have more flexible supply chains, jet fuel depends on specific components that are harder to substitute, leaving fewer alternatives when supplies tighten.航空燃油往往是第一个出现短缺的成品油产品，部分原因是其质量标准比其他燃料更严格。它必须储存在专用罐中，大量储备成本高昂，且不能长期存放，否则会变质。因此，它的缓冲空间较小。与供应链更灵活的汽油或柴油不同，航空燃油依赖一些难以替代的环节，一旦供应收紧，可选替代品极少。The structure of the global fuel system magnifies the problem. Countries that extract crude oil are often not the ones that refine it. South Korea, for example, is a major exporter of jet fuel, but relies heavily on imported crude, much of it from the Strait of Hormuz.全球燃料体系的结构放大了这一问题。开采原油的国家往往不是炼油国。例如，韩国是航空燃油的主要出口国，但严重依赖进口原油，其中很大一部分来自霍尔木兹海峡。Countries like Australia have reduced their refining capacity over the years, leaving them more dependent not only on imported oil but also on other countries’ willingness and ability to refine and sell it.澳大利亚等国多年来缩减了炼油产能，导致它们不仅更依赖进口石油，还更依赖其他国家的炼油和出售。本月早些时候，伊朗德黑兰，一处储油设施在空袭中遭到攻击。China was one of the first countries to restrict exports of refined oil products, including jet fuel, days after the fighting began last month. The move reverberated across the region, where China supplies at least half the fuel consumed in some countries.中国是战斗爆发后几天内最早限制包括航空燃油在内的成品油出口的国家之一。这一举措在区域内产生连锁反应，在一些国家，中国供应的燃料至少占消费量的一半。In recent days, Thailand, a major supplier to Vietnam, imposed a temporary ban on certain fuel exports, including jet fuel, while South Korea capped exports of some gasoline and diesel products, further squeezing jet fuel supplies as refineries put a priority on domestic demand.近日，向越南供应大量燃料的泰国对包括航空燃油在内的某些燃料出口实施临时禁令；韩国则对部分汽油和柴油产品出口设限，进一步挤压航空燃油供应，因为炼油厂优先满足国内需求。“We’ve seen a ban on crude product exports, and China has been one of the first to do so,” said Neil Beveridge, the director of research at Bernstein, a market research firm, citing conversations with traders and companies in the oil sector. The moves prompted companies to hoard oil on the expectation that the situation would only get worse, he said.“我们看到了一些原油产品出口禁令，中国是最早采取行动的国家之一，”市场研究公司Bernstein研究总监尼尔·贝弗里奇表示，他援引了与石油行业交易员和企业的对话。这些举措促使企业开始囤积石油，它们预计情况只会进一步恶化。In Vietnam, fears of price spikes and fuel shortages have incited panic. Hundreds of drivers on motorbikes, the main mode of transport in the country, have lined up late into the night outside gas stations in Hanoi.在越南，对价格飙升和燃料短缺的担忧引发恐慌。摩托车是该国主要交通工具，数百名骑手深夜在河内加油站排起长队。The situation has grown so dire that Vietnam’s foreign minister and prime minister have met with ambassadors and senior officials from China, South Korea, Thailand, Japan and the United Arab Emirates, urging them to help, including sharing access to strategic reserves.局势已变得极为严峻，越南外交部长和总理接连会见中国、韩国、泰国、日本和阿联酋的大使及高级官员，恳请对方提供帮助，包括分享战略储备。上周，越南河内的一处加油站。该国有近四分之三的航空燃料依赖进口。Nearly three-quarters of Vietnam’s aviation fuel is imported, mostly from China and Thailand. Vietnam’s Civil Aviation Authority warned this week that jet fuel shortages could emerge as early as April. Vietnamese airlines are weighing fare increases and flight cuts to cope with rising costs and tightening supplies. Even at higher prices, securing additional fuel remains a serious challenge.越南近四分之三的航空燃料依赖进口，主要来自中国和泰国。越南民航局本周警告，航空燃油短缺可能最早在4月出现。越南各航空公司正在考虑提价和减班以应对成本上升和供应收紧。即使付出更高价格，也很难得到更多的燃油。“Access to fuel supplies is extremely difficult at the moment, as it depends entirely on external factors, particularly the conflict in the Middle East,” said Bui Ngoc Bao, chairman of the Vietnam Petroleum Association.“目前获取燃料供应的难度极大，因为这完全取决于外部因素，尤其是中东冲突，”越南石油协会主席裴玉宝(Bui Ngoc Bao)表示。For Australia, the current shock is a situation long flagged as a vulnerability because of the nation’s reliance on imports, including in the government’s own review. The country imports 90 percent of its fuel and had about a 32-day supply of jet fuel on hand in early March, according to the country’s energy minister.对澳大利亚而言，此次冲击凸显了一个很久以前就已经认识到的薄弱环节，政府自身的审查报告就曾指出这一点。该国90%的燃料依赖进口，据能源部长透露，3月初航空燃油储备约为32天。A local media report that at least one fuel tanker bound for Australia failed to load at a Chinese port in mid-March fanned fears that shortages were ahead.当地媒体报道称，3月中旬至少有一艘驶往澳大利亚的燃油运输船未能在中国港口装货，这加剧了人们对即将出现短缺的恐慌。On Thursday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reassured the public that the country’s fuel supply remained secure, attributing any shortages to panic buying, noting that demand had more than doubled in some regions. At the same time, he announced a task force on fuel security, saying he wanted the country to be “overprepared.”周四，总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯向公众保证国家燃料供应仍然安全，将任何短缺归咎于恐慌性抢购，并指出部分地区需求已增长一倍以上。同时，他宣布成立燃料安全工作组，表示希望国家做到“过度准备”。上周，澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴内塞在议会发表讲话。他于周四表示：“这场冲突对全球能源市场造成了前所未有的冲击。”As a part of the measures, Australia will also keep more of the domestically produced fuel in the country, he said.他表示，其中一项措施是把更多国内生产的燃料留在本国。“The conflict is an unprecedented shock to global energy markets,” Mr. Albanese said, adding: “Already, Australians are feeling the consequences of this.”“这场冲突对全球能源市场造成了前所未有的冲击，”阿尔巴尼斯说，并补充道：“澳大利亚人已经开始感受到后果。”The chief executive of Sydney Airport, which accounts for 40 percent of the country’s jet fuel consumption, said last week that the airport typically held around a 25-day supply. But the reliability of that stock “depends on international shipping lanes, global refining capacity and geopolitical stability,” the executive, Scott Charlton, said in remarks at a summit on renewable fuels.悉尼机场——占全国航空燃油消费量的40%——首席执行官斯科特·查尔顿上周在一个可再生燃料峰会上表示，该机场通常保有约25天的供应。但他指出，这一库存的可靠性“取决于国际航道、全球炼油产能和地缘政治稳定”。Of the war now jeopardizing all those fronts, he said: “We’re reminded quickly how interconnected energy, aviation and geopolitics are.”如今所有这些方面都受到战争威胁，对此他表示：“这很快让我们看到，能源、航空和地缘政治是多么紧密相连。”艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。Tung Ngo是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻越南河内。Victoria Kim是时报驻澳大利亚记者，常驻悉尼，报道澳大利亚、新西兰和泛太平洋地区。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。