US President Donald Trump on Sunday threatened to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran didn’t fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said, “If Iran doesn’t fully open, without threat, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first!”Iran responded to Trump’s warning, saying it will retaliate by targeting US and Israel-linked energy and IT infrastructure, along with desalination plants in the region, if its power plants are hit.In a recent attack, Iran fired missiles towards Israel’s Dimona, which has a nuclear research centre, and hit a building, causing significant damage. Iran said this attack comes in response to Israel’s earlier attack on Natanz, the site of an Iranian nuclear facility. Both sides have also attacked oil facilities.With civilian infrastructure coming directly in the line of fire, as clearly spelt out by both sides this time, the US-Israel-Iran war has entered its most crucial and possibly the most precarious phase.Consequences of ‘obliteration’Trump said the US would start by striking “the biggest” power plant. One of the most significant is Bushehr, a nuclear power plant around 750 km from Tehran that is also home to an Iranian navy base and a dual-use, civilian-military airport. Though it is said to contribute merely 1-2% of Iran’s power requirements, it is a key strategic site.Read | From ‘winding down’ to 48-hour ultimatum: Trump’s Iran war has no exit, just escalation. What it meansJust three days ago, Tehran had claimed that a projectile struck the grounds of the Bushehr plant — in close proximity to the operating power unit — also raising the spectre of a radiological incident. Although no release of nuclear material was reported following the incident, it underlines a longtime worry of Iran’s neighbours — that if the power plant on the shores of the Persian Gulf is hit, it could spell disaster for the entire region.In fact, an attack on Bushehr is the primary concern for the international community. Most Gulf nations (the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia) rely on desalination for nearly all their drinking water. If a strike on Bushehr causes a radiation leak into the Persian Gulf, it could contaminate the water supply for millions across the region.Story continues below this adIran’s electricity capacity (over 90,000 MW) makes it one of the largest power producers in West Asia. Iran mostly relies on natural gas for its energy needs — up to 80% as per estimates. The country is heavily dependent on thermal power for its electricity. These plants are primarily fuelled by natural gas, with fuel oil used as a backup during the winter. Iran’s big thermal power plants include the Damavand power plant near Tehran (2,868 MW), the Kerman plant in southeastern Iran (1,910 MW), and the Ramin steam power plant in Khuzestan province (1,890 MW), according to industry and energy databases.These large, very visible plants can be vulnerable targets in a conflict, as opposed to underground or more modular and dispersed facilities.Without electricity, Iran cannot process or export oil and natural gas. A disruption to Iran’s energy stability might create panic in global markets. A serious attack on Iranian energy facilities, or a disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, would likely cause global oil and gas prices to soar, causing severe market volatility.However, it is believed that Iran has a particularly good power grid and gas distribution network, not very easy to destroy.Story continues below this adIn fact, since 2017, Iran has been exporting electricity to Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iraq.Iraq relies heavily on Iranian electricity. A collapse of the Iranian power grid could potentially trigger a blackout and subsequent political unrest in Iraq.Also, Russia has often targeted Ukraine’s power plants, and while the much smaller nation’s grid has been severely damaged, it has not been “obliterated”.Could lead to fierce retaliationIran has vowed “zero restraint” if its energy facilities are targeted. Tehran has threatened to attack energy infrastructure across West Asia, including assets belonging to US allies in the region. This could draw in neighbouring countries, escalating into a full-scale regional conflict. Iran has de facto closed the Strait of Hormuz — which is the key choke point for about 20% of global daily oil supplies — for what it calls ‘enemy-linked ships’.Story continues below this adOmair Anas, who teaches international relations at the Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Turkey, told The Indian Express, “Trump’s warning that Iran’s energy infrastructure would be obliterated looks more like aggressive posturing for a ceasefire. Though the US has the capability to destroy Iran’s critical energy infrastructure, it is Trump’s allies in the region, including Israel, who will face the brunt of Iranian retaliation.”Earlier this month, Trump had raised the idea of destroying Iran’s power grid but also downplayed it. “We could take apart their electric capacity within one hour, and it would take them 25 years to rebuild,” Trump had told reporters on March 11. “So ideally, we’re not going to be doing that.”Any such action by the US on Iran’s civilian infrastructure could lead this war to a point of no return, as the assassinated Iranian leader, Ali Larijani, had earlier indicated. Responding to Trump’s threat, he had posted a day later on X, “Well, if they do that, the whole region will go dark in less than half an hour and darkness provides ample opportunity to hunt down US servicemen running for safety.”Thus, many see the latest threat as a tactic to bring Tehran to the negotiating table again, by giving it a 48-hour deadline.‘Most serious test’Story continues below this adBy creating disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran aims to make the aggression against it extremely expensive for the US and Israel. Iran has indicated it wants the war to stop, but not at the cost of its sovereignty or security, and it has not sought a simple ceasefire.While the US has given a 48-hour deadline to Iran before its energy infra is targeted, reports indicate that should this gambit fail, the Trump administration is making preparations for a ground invasion, possibly to occupy the South Pars gas field on the Kharg island and open up the Strait of Hormuz by force.Anas said the Iran-Israel war is the most serious test of any American administration since the Islamic revolution in 1979. “Even though the US President has declared success in many of his actions and air strikes on Iran, with Iran’s increasingly intense retaliation, the rhetoric of early success has come into question,” he noted.Most of Trump’s allies in the region and in NATO are uncertain about Trump’s war plans. The more aggressively Trump goes against Iran, the more pressure he might face from his allies at home and abroad, added Anas.