Wars always follow a single fundamental rule. You know where to start, but you never control how they end. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is just another.All three key protagonists — Iran, Israel, and the US — are signalling that they are “winning”. In what is supposed to be his first Nowruz — the pre-Islamic Persian New Year — message, the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, claimed that Iran has dealt a “dizzying blow” to its enemies and that “the enemy has been defeated”. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that after 20 days of operations, “Iran today has no ability to enrich uranium and no ability to produce ballistic missiles”. US President Donald Trump, who has been claiming that the war was progressing faster than planned, signalled that the conflict is “winding down”. The Middle East, a land of prophets and prophecies, has a unique trait: Nothing happens until it really happens.AdvertisementThree weeks since the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, where do we stand today? At least 14 countries are directly involved in the conflict, causing significant global repercussions. The war has already shattered several taboos and unthinkables. The killings of the Supreme Leader, security chief Ali Larijani, and several other key Iranian military figures have been devastating for the regime. This has resulted in two conflicting outcomes. One, the long-anticipated collapse of the regime has not occurred, at least not yet. And two, the conflict has weakened central authority and loosened decision-making, giving more power to local authorities — those who control resources decide the targets for attack.The long-feared closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategically crucial chokepoint, has occurred. It was accompanied by Iranian energy infrastructure being targeted by the US and Israel, followed by Iranian retaliations against Arab energy assets. Both actions caused a significant supply disruption, resulting in a sharp increase in oil prices, which many expect will soon hit $200 per barrel.Although bunkers provide safety, the daily lives of ordinary Israelis have also been severely disrupted by a volley of attacks. Israel has yet to achieve, and is unlikely to develop, a foolproof firewall system against incoming Iranian projectiles.AdvertisementOnce the dust settles, what are the likely outcomes? One, the Gulf Arab countries neighbouring Iran will need to reassess their policies and strategies, especially considering their failure to safeguard the security of their citizens and large expatriate populations. They will be forced to rethink their social contract. As shown by the Arab Spring protests, monarchies tend to be more responsive and accommodating to popular moods than republican regimes. But this time, the challenge is herculean.The GCC countries, including former allies like Oman and Qatar, will need to reevaluate their relationships with Tehran. If the US couldn’t serve as the dependable security provider the Gulf monarchies had expected, their strategy of appeasement towards Iran has also failed completely. They will have to go back to the drawing board and start over.An unfortunate and unintended outcome will be the fate of Shia minorities in Gulf Arab countries. After being marginalised for a long time, especially following the Islamic Revolution, their situation had begun to improve slightly in recent years. The recent discovery of Iranian sympathisers and sleeper cells indicates that Gulf Arab countries, particularly Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, will view their Shia populations with increased suspicion and mistrust. The Arab Shias will be compelled to demonstrate their unwavering loyalty to their rulers and the state.Two, the US and Israel will have to reevaluate their decapitation strategy aimed at triggering regime change in Iran. They will have to review the effectiveness and efficiency of their weapon systems. Although some regional countries benefit from Iran’s diminished military power, few have openly supported, let alone participated in, Operation Epic Fury. Even nations whose energy supply depends on the Strait of Hormuz are hesitant to join the US in keeping the strait open. Therefore, the US and Israel will need to reassess their regional strategy.Three, the million-dollar question revolves around Iran. While the regime has shown its survival instincts and resilience in facing and responding to aggression, its future is more uncertain now than it was a few weeks ago. The regime’s “survival” comes at a significant cost, not only militarily but also socially.Iranian proxies are weaker than ever before. Hamas is more eager to work towards rebuilding Palestinian territories, and anger against Hezbollah has unified the Lebanese government and people towards a potential reconciliation with Israel. The weakening of domestic military capabilities has also reduced the clergy’s ability to impose its authority. The office of Velayat-e Faqih is crucial to the regime’s survival in Iran. However, dynastic succession and the appointment of someone with limited and unproven juridical expertise have greatly weakened the authority of the Supreme Leader.you may likeFour, since the current conflict began with the US-Israel killing of Khamenei, it is natural and unavoidable that Arab anger towards them will emerge, and there may even be pressure to reconsider the Abraham Accords. At the same time, Israel alone will not shoulder all the blame. The Arab states and the Arab street are equally angry and upset with the Islamic Republic. This will create a challenge for Iran. Although its arsenal might give it military dominance, reckless attacks on Arab infrastructure will be politically costly for Iran in the long run.While everyone, including the main leaders, wants an early resolution to the growing conflict, no country or group can get the parties to the negotiation table. Noises are often inversely related to influence, and there are fewer statesmen to help us progress. Therefore, there is no early end in sight to the ongoing Iran conflict.The writer teaches contemporary Middle East at Jawaharlal Nehru University