JOHN YOON2026年3月23日 While BTS does not have any shows planned in mainland China, fans in the country will likely contribute significantly to the supergroup’s album and ticket sales as it returns from hiatus. Fan clubs based in China are marking the comeback by spending tens of thousands of dollars on celebratory billboards in Seoul.虽然防弹少年团(BTS)目前没有在中国大陆举办任何演出的计划，但中国粉丝很可能在该超级组合结束暂歇期回归时，为他们的专辑销量和门票销售做出重大贡献。中国当地的粉丝俱乐部正在通过在首尔投放价值数万美元的庆祝广告牌，来庆祝他们的回归。But the Chinese market for K-pop, while enormous and lucrative, can also be capricious.但虽然K-pop在中国市场规模庞大且利润丰厚，却也可能相当反复无常。Case in point: Japanese stars in South Korean pop groups have been absent from some recent concerts and events in China, a pattern that experts say is linked to a diplomatic spat between Beijing and Tokyo.举例来说：韩国流行团体中的日本艺人最近在中国的一些演唱会和活动中缺席，专家认为这一现象与北京和东京之间的外交争端有关。In a high-profile example, the K-pop boy band Riize performed without one of its six members, the Japanese rapper Shotaro, in Macau last month. “I was so disappointed,” said Maya Choi, 16, a fan who traveled to the show from Beijing.一个备受关注的例子是，K-pop男团Riize上个月在澳门演出时，缺少了其六名成员之一——日本说唱乐手Shotaro。“我真的非常失望，”来自北京、专程前往现场的16岁粉丝玛雅·崔（音）说。The organizers apologized and cited “unforeseeable circumstances” for the last-minute cancellation, without mentioning China. But analysts and music critics saw the absence as fallout from a diplomatic rift between China and Japan that began when the Japanese leader suggested that her country could intervene militarily if China moved to seize Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing claims as part of its territory.主办方道歉，并以“不可抗力因素”为由解释了这次最后一刻的取消，没有提及中国。但分析人士和乐评人认为，这次缺席是中日外交裂痕的外溢影响，这一裂痕始于日本领导人暗示，如果中国试图夺取台湾——北京声称其为领土的自治岛屿——日本可能进行军事干预。It is unclear if the cancellations are the result of orders from Chinese officials or precautionary decisions taken by organizers. The Chinese government — which has publicly signaled its restrictions on Japanese trade, tourism and cultural imports — has not said anything recently about K-pop specifically. The artists and entertainment agencies involved in several recent cases either declined to comment or did not respond to inquiries.目前尚不清楚这些取消是否来自中国官方的命令，还是主办方出于谨慎做出的决定。已公开表示限制日本贸易、旅游和文化进口的中国政府最近并未针对K-pop做出任何具体表态。涉及近期几起案例的艺人和娱乐公司要么拒绝置评，要么未回应询问。Shotaro（左三）去年在得克萨斯州奥斯汀的Riize演唱会上。Some K-pop fans say that following their favorite stars increasingly requires an understanding of East Asian geopolitical tensions — and a close reading of news reports and social media chatter about cancellations and snubs.一些K-pop粉丝表示，追随自己喜爱的明星如今越来越需要了解东亚地缘政治紧张局势——以及仔细阅读有关取消和遭故意冷落的新闻报道与社交媒体讨论。Shotaro’s absence in Macau “opened my eyes to international politics,” said Rachel Sirait, 21, a Riize fan in Jakarta, Indonesia. “One of the reasons I’ve focused on this is because it’s impacting my hobbies.”Shotaro在澳门的缺席“让我睁开了眼，看到了国际政治”，印尼雅加达的21岁Riize粉丝蕾切尔·西赖特说。“我关注这件事的原因之一，就是它正在影响我的兴趣爱好。”In other prominent examples, Le Sserafim, a girl group with two Japanese members that is managed by the same company as BTS, canceled a fan signing event in Shanghai in December. And in January, Rei, a Japanese member of the girl group IVE, was absent from an event in Guangzhou.在其他引人注目的例子中，由与BTS同一家公司管理的女团Le Sserafim（拥有两名日本成员）于12月取消了在上海的粉丝见面会；1月，女团IVE的日本成员Rei缺席了广州的一场活动。Fans and experts say these Japanese musicians are getting caught in diplomatic crossfire even though neither the bands nor their labels have publicly sided with China or Japan. (BTS, which has no Japanese members, is scheduled to perform in Hong Kong, a Chinese territory, as part of its world tour. )粉丝和专家表示，尽管这些日本音乐人所在的团体或所属公司并未公开站队中国或日本，却仍被卷入外交交火之中。（BTS没有日本成员，已计划在中国领土香港演出，作为其世界巡演中的一站。）K-pop has spread around the world largely thanks to the industry’s efforts to be multinational, said Kim Do Heon, a music critic in Seoul. Groups often have members from Australia, Canada, China, Japan, Thailand and the United States. They often sing in English, Chinese and Japanese.首尔音乐评论家金到宪（音）表示，K-pop之所以能风靡全球，在很大程度上得益于行业努力实现多国化。团体通常包括来自澳大利亚、加拿大、中国、日本、泰国和美国的成员。他们经常用英语、中文和日语演唱。But this multicultural ambition has turned K-pop into a minefield of sensitivities. Artists have been accused of cultural appropriation and racism and companies have come under fire over political issues, many of them related to China.但这种多元文化雄心已将K-pop变成一个充满敏感点的雷区。艺人被指控文化挪用和种族主义，公司也因政治问题饱受抨击，其中许多与中国相关。In 2016, after the Taiwanese singer Tzuyu from the girl group Twice waved a Taiwanese flag on a South Korean variety show, backlash from people who support the unification of Taiwan with China prompted her to make an apology video declaring, “There is only one China.”2016年，女团Twice的台湾成员Tzuyu在韩国综艺节目中挥舞台湾旗帜后，引发支持台湾与中国统一的民众强烈反弹，她随后发布道歉视频，宣称“只有一个中国”。And last year, the girl group Aespa withdrew its Chinese singer, Ningning, from a concert after she posted a picture of a lamp that people in Japan said resembled a mushroom cloud evoking an atomic bomb. Although the band’s label cited a health issue, her exclusion was widely viewed as a response to the controversy.去年，女团Aespa因中国成员宁宁发布了一盏灯的照片，被日本人认为其形似蘑菇云，让人联想到原子弹，因而被从演唱会中撤下。尽管其所属公司称因健康问题，但她的缺席被广泛视为对争议的回应。Aespa于2022年在纽约中央公园演出，居中者为宁宁。 Andy Kropa/Invision, via Associated PressMore broadly, China’s authoritarian government has dramatically restricted the industry’s business inside its borders.总体而言，中国的威权政府已大幅限制该行业在其境内的业务。South Korean stars used to perform freely to rapturous Chinese crowds in the early 2000s. But in 2016, Beijing started barring South Korean celebrities from performing concerts in China, except on rare occasions and in Chinese territories like Macau. The restrictions followed Seoul’s deployment of a U.S. missile defense system that China viewed as a threat to its national security.2000年代初，韩国明星可以不受约束地在热情的中国观众面前演出。但2016年起，北京开始禁止韩国明星在中国举办演唱会，仅在澳门等中国领土偶尔例外。这些限制源于首尔部署美国导弹防御系统，中国视之为对其国家安全的威胁。The stakes for K-pop bands are high because China is the industry’s second-largest export market. Japan accounted for about $81 million in album sales last year, while China trailed behind at about $70 million. The United States followed with $64 million, according to South Korean government data.这对K-pop团体而言风险很高，因为中国是该行业第二大出口市场。根据韩国政府数据，去年K-pop在日本专辑销量约8100万美元，中国紧随其后约7000万美元，美国为6400万美元。Analysts at Daishin Securities, a financial services company in Seoul, estimate that major K-pop entertainment companies could earn an additional $150 million to $340 million if the Chinese market fully reopened.首尔金融服务公司大信金融中心的分析师估计，如果中国市场全面重开，主要K-pop娱乐公司可能额外赚取1.5亿至3.4亿美元。In a relief to the industry, some K-pop concerts have resumed in China as South Korea’s current president works to improve relations with Beijing. Treasure, a 10-member boy band with Japanese members, performed in Macau this month without complications.令行业稍感宽慰的是，随着韩国现任总统努力改善与北京的关系，一些K-pop演唱会已在中国恢复。拥有日本成员的10人男团Treasure本月在澳门顺利演出，没有出现问题。Some hope that China’s recent anti-Japanese campaign may provide an opening for South Korean content in the Chinese market, said Eun Jong-hak, a professor of Chinese studies at Kookmin University in Seoul.首尔国民大学中国研究教授殷钟学（音）表示，一些人希望中国近期的反日运动能为韩国内容在中国市场打开缺口。2021年，韩国文化院在北京举办的一场BTS活动。With an eye on that market, some K-pop producers have spent years establishing operations in China and creating groups with Chinese artists. But Professor Eun said that going too far to appease a particular country’s fans would be risky.着眼于该市场，一些K-pop制作人多年来在中国建立运营并打造包含中国艺人的团体。但殷钟学表示，过度迎合特定国家粉丝的风险很大。“K-pop thrives precisely because it operates in a gray area,” he said. “But if it evolves into a form constrained by constantly watching someone else’s reactions, it could hinder its growth on the global stage.”“K-pop之所以蓬勃发展，正是因为它游走在灰色地带，”他说。“但如果它演变成不断观察他人反应的受限形式，就可能阻碍其在全球舞台上的成长。”K-pop bands are aware of the risks, and they tend to tread carefully when they tour in China.K-pop团体意识到这些风险，在中国巡演时往往小心翼翼。At Riize’s recent concert in Macau, Shotaro traveled with his bandmates but stayed backstage. “I’m sure Shotaro’s watching us here,” his bandmate, Sohee, told the crowd. “Like somewhere here but not here.”在Riize最近的澳门演唱会上，Shotaro虽随队前往但留在后台。“我相信Shotaro正在这里看着我们，”他的队友Sohee对观众说。“就在这里的某个地方，但不是这里。”Park Haeseo, an 18-year-old fan in Seoul, was among the Riize fans who were disappointed.首尔18岁粉丝朴海舒（Park Haeseo，音）也是感到失望的Riize粉丝之一。“What hurts most is that no one is at fault,” Ms. Park said. “Yet someone gets hurt and someone else has to feel sorry.”“最痛的是，没有任何人有错，”她说。“却有人受伤，有人不得不感到遗憾。”John Yoon是时报驻首尔记者，报道突发新闻和热门新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。