Social Security update: COLA payments could change due to Iran war as oil prices surge past $100. Fuel prices jumped over 20 percent in one month, raising inflation concerns fast. Current projections suggest a 2027 COLA of around 2.8%, but analysts warn that rising energy prices could push that higher. Since COLA is directly tied to inflation through the CPI-W index, any sustained increase in fuel and energy costs could lead to larger monthly checks for retirees. However, the final outcome depends on how long inflation remains elevated in the coming months.