EURUSD Euro/US DollarFX:EURUSDOrmirCoba Morfeus continues to stress that crude remains structurally sensitive to any fresh disruption around Hormuz, Kharg Island, or regional infrastructure. Morfeus also frames the upcoming central-bank week as a major source of event risk that can quickly reverse the relief move. Morfeus highlights constructive U.S.-China trade dialogue as a marginal support to global risk appetite. Morfeus’s main caution is that this session looks more like a tactical repricing of near-term tail risk than a durable regime change. MUFG Bank MUFG maintains a high-conviction short EUR/USD view because it sees the balance of risks still skewed toward a stronger dollar the longer the conflict lasts. MUFG’s regression framework suggests EUR/USD falls roughly 0.7% for every 10% rise in crude, and it argues the move since the crisis began is broadly consistent with that relationship. MUFG believes Asia is among the most exposed regions to the Hormuz shock because around 90% of oil moving through the Strait ultimately goes to Asia. MUFG argues that Asian FX faces not only higher oil prices but also energy-shortage risk, which makes the regional outlook more defensive. MUFG describes the RBA as the clearest central-bank hawkish outlier for now, but it warns that AUD upside could still fade if global growth fears deepen. MUFG’s scenario work sees EUR/USD holding near 1.16-1.18 only in a quick de-escalation case, but falling toward 1.12-1.16 in a longer conflict and as low as 1.07-1.13 in a severe escalation. MUFG also stresses that central banks are likely to show less tolerance for dismissing the shock as transitory, even if they do not immediately react with hikes this week.