ETH/USD Pulls Back After Rally as Macro Pressure BuildsEthereum / USDBINANCE:ETHUSDJohn_IsigeETH/USD reached two-month highs near 2380.00, but quickly reversed lower as geopolitical tensions and monetary factors weighed on the market. Investors continue shifting toward safe-haven assets like gold, reducing exposure to risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. ⸻ Fundamental Pressure Intensifies The geopolitical backdrop remains the key driver. •The US Department of Defense requested $200B for military operations, far exceeding expectations •Escalation in the US–Iran conflict now includes attacks on energy infrastructure •Brent crude surged above $110, raising global inflation risks As a result, central banks may be forced to maintain or tighten policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this narrative: •Rate held at 3.75% •2026 inflation forecast raised to 2.7% (from 2.4%) This strengthens the US dollar and adds downside pressure on crypto assets. ⸻ Ethereum-Specific Catalyst On the positive side, Ethereum is testing the Fast Confirmation Rule (FCR): •Transaction confirmation reduced to ~13 seconds •~98% faster than current speeds If implemented, this could improve user experience and drive network adoption. ⸻ Market Sentiment •ETH ETF outflows (daily): –$55.5M •Weekly flows: +$118.6M •Fear & Greed Index: 23 (extreme fear) Overall sentiment remains fragile despite some inflow recovery. ⸻ Technical Structure ETH has returned to its key range: •2187.50–1875.00 (Murray –) This range now acts as the primary decision zone. Indicators are mixed: •Bollinger Bands: turning upward •MACD: positive •Stochastic: reversing from overbought On the weekly timeframe, the structure remains bearish: •Descending channel intact •Bollinger Bands trending lower Current price action resembles a bearish flag, increasing downside probability. ⸻ Key Levels Resistance •2500.00 •2812.50 •3125.00 Support •1875.00 •1481.50 •1250.00 ⸻ Trading Scenarios Bearish Scenario Sell from 2080.00 •Targets: 1481.50 → 1250.00 •Stop-loss: 2250.00 •Timeframe: 5–7 days Break below 2187.50–1875.00 range confirms continuation lower. ⸻ Bullish Scenario Buy above 2500.00 •Entry: 2510.00 •Targets: 2812.50 → 3125.00 •Stop-loss: 2315.00 A breakout above 2500 signals exit from the descending channel. ⸻ Outlook ETH remains under macro-driven pressure, with geopolitics and inflation dominating sentiment. Unless price reclaims 2500, the structure favors continued downside within a broader bearish trend.