GOLD H4 16/03 | LAST KEY LEVEL BEFORE MID-TERM BREAKDOWNGoldOANDA:XAUUSDLucasGrayTradingAfter a sharp decline in the session at the end of the week on 13/03, the market is beginning to reflect global macro risks more clearly. Recent US economic data shows that the economy still maintains a certain resilience, helping the USD retain its strength, while geopolitical factors and military tensions continue to shift defensive capital flows between USD and gold. However, it is noteworthy that gold no longer reacts strongly to supportive news, and each recovery is gradually weakening – a common sign before the market enters a deeper decline phase. After losing the support structure around 5055, the price quickly slid to the psychological zone of 5000, in line with the previously forecasted decline scenario. Currently, the market is testing the last key level of the large range 5000–5200. This is a crucial liquidity zone, where it will be decided whether gold continues to sideway or officially enters a new mid-term decline. On the technical structure, the price is moving within the H4 down channel, with the demand zones above continuously being broken. This indicates that bearish pressure still prevails, and the current recoveries are mainly retests of the structure before continuing to decline. Main Scenario (bearish continuation) If gold loses the 5000 zone, the market could open up deeper declines towards 4850 → 4700, where the next large liquidity zones are concentrated on the mid-term frame. Technical Recovery Scenario If 5000 holds in the short term, gold may experience a technical recovery up to 5050 → 5100 before the market decides the next direction. Key Levels to Watch 5200 – 5350: large supply zone 5050 – 5100: structure retest zone 5000: decisive key level 4850 – 4700: next liquidity zone if breakdown In the current context, 5000 is the last price zone keeping the market within the range. A clear break below this zone could be a confirmation signal that the accumulation phase has ended and the mid-term decline of gold is beginning. 📊 Follow LucasGrayTrading to update the multi-timeframe gold roadmap, liquidity zones, and market scenarios before the next major breakouts.