Fundamental Market Analysis for March 16, 2026 GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarSAXO:GBPUSDFresh-Forexcast2004The pound is trading near 1.32450–1.32650 after a series of declines against the dollar. Pressure on the British currency increased after data showed no growth in the UK economy in January, while the external background remains difficult due to high oil prices and tensions in the Middle East. For the British economy, this means higher inflation risks and weaker demand prospects. The market is increasingly expecting the Bank of England to leave its interest rate unchanged at the upcoming meeting, but such a pause is not providing support for the pound. The reason is that this decision reflects not economic strength, but a combination of weak growth and the risk of a renewed acceleration in prices. At the same time, the dollar is receiving additional support as a safe-haven currency during a period of global uncertainty. Fundamentally, this keeps the bias tilted toward further weakness in GBP/USD. A recovery would only be possible if energy-related pressure eases significantly, but so far the market has received no such signal. Until then, participants will continue to assess how quickly higher fuel costs will affect inflation and business activity in the UK. Against this background, selling the pair looks more justified than expecting a stable rise. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.32550, SL 1.32850, TP 1.31650