Strategy, a leading indicator for the BTC bottomStrategy Inc Class ABATS:MSTRSwissquoteShould we consider returning to buying Strategy stock soon, given that it has been in a bear market since the end of 2024 and that the company has implemented a cash reserve system dedicated to servicing its debt? In short, Strategy can pay its debt interest for approximately two years without having to sell any BTC. Before answering this question, here are the technical and fundamental factors you need to keep in mind: • Strategy stock has been in a bear market since the end of 2024 when considering the highest price, and since July 2025 when considering the highest closing price. • Historically, Strategy stock has always been ahead of Bitcoin’s price, acting as a “leading indicator” both on the downside and the upside (Strategy stock gave a bullish technical signal in October 2024, several weeks before Bitcoin and before the results of the US presidential election at the time). • The drawdown from the all-time high has reached 80%, and the $100 area corresponds to the 2021 cyclical peak. • From a fundamental perspective, the cash reserve put in place allows Strategy to honor its debt even if Bitcoin trades below its average acquisition price for two years. Consequently, Strategy can withstand the duration of the Bitcoin bear market, which based on historical averages should end in the second half of 2026. Therefore, assuming that Strategy will not sell its BTC and accepting that Strategy stock’s technical signals lead those of BTC, Strategy stock could mark its bear market bottom before BTC does — even if BTC’s spot price spends several months below Strategy’s average acquisition price, currently $75,000 USD (see the chart below from Coinglass). This is where the lessons from Strategy’s medium/long-term charts come into play, meaning the monthly and weekly timeframes. The major support zone lies between $75 and $130, and the former cyclical peak stands at $103. It is within this price range that Strategy could mark a bottom this year. Note that a bullish divergence is already visible on the weekly RSI. However, caution is warranted — the market will likely need to build an accumulation base for several weeks before considering a major bullish reversal. In conclusion, and based on the historical averages observed during past bear markets of Strategy and BTC, the $75/$120 price zone may be considered an attractive DCA area before the primary bullish trend resumes in the next cycle. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. 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