ANNE STEVENSON-YANG2026年3月16日 Kevin Frayer/Getty ImagesIf there is a Chinese analogue to Nero’s fiddling while Rome burned, it is the country’s latest five-year plan.如果要在中国找一个类似于“罗马焚城时尼禄却在弹琴”的典故，那可能就是该国最新的五年规划。The policy blueprint — which sets out China’s economic strategy for the years ahead — was approved on Thursday by the National People’s Congress in Beijing. Chapter 15, titled “Vigorously Boosting Consumption,” proclaims that the Chinese consumer is finally going to start earning more and spending more.这份为国家未来几年的经济战略定调的政策蓝图于周四在北京获得全国人大批准。其中第15章题为“大力提振消费”，宣称中国消费者终于要开始赚得更多、花得更多了。This promise, which Beijing has been making for more than two decades, matters far beyond China. If Chinese consumers started spending more, it would help reduce the country’s reliance on exports to fuel its economy, a strategy that now floods world markets with Chinese-made goods and creates huge trade surpluses for China and persistent tension with trading partners such as the United States.这一北京方面已承诺二十余载的愿景，其意义远不止于中国国内。倘若中国消费者真能扩大支出，将有助于降低该国经济对出口的依赖——现行依赖出口的战略导致中国商品充斥全球市场，既为中国创造巨额贸易顺差，也与美国等贸易伙伴持续产生摩擦。The situation is unlikely to change under the new plan, which mostly doubles down on China’s longstanding approach of prioritizing export-oriented industries and technological development instead of creating a truly consumer-driven economy.然而，新规划恐怕难以改变这一局面。文件大体上延续了中国长期奉行的方针：优先发展外向型产业和技术，而不是建立一个真正由消费驱动的经济。Even if Communist Party leaders want to unleash more spending, formidable obstacles stand in the way, including a work force increasingly trapped in insecure, low-wage employment, a rapidly aging and shrinking population and a weak social safety net that encourages people to save for emergencies.即便中共领导层希望释放更多消费，仍然有许多重大障碍，包括越来越多劳动力陷入收入不稳的低薪就业困境；人口迅速老龄化并持续减少；以及薄弱的社会保障体系，这些都促使人们为了应对不时之需而更多储蓄。China’s people, perhaps more than at any time in the last few decades, are in no mood to go out and splurge. Many have been airing growing anxiety online, posting about falling incomes and scarce jobs. The average income was just over $500 a month in 2025. Unemployment is high.此时此刻，中国民众外出大笔消费的意愿或许比过去几十年的任何时候都要低。许多人在网上表达日益增长的焦虑，发帖谈论收入减少、就业困难。2025年，中国人均月收入刚过3600元，失业率居高不下。A fundamental shift that has taken place in China’s labor market is the root cause of these problems.中国劳动力市场发生的一项根本性变化是这些问题的根源。Since the early 2010s, intensifying global economic competition, automation, the pandemic-era closure of countless businesses, slowing economic growth and China’s protracted property slump have all combined to eliminate millions of manufacturing and construction jobs. This has driven countless workers into a growing service sector that requires fewer skills and offers lower pay.自2010年代初以来，全球经济竞争日益激烈、自动化发展、新冠疫情期间大量企业倒闭、经济增长放缓以及中国持续低迷的房地产市场，这些因素共同作用，导致数以百万计的制造业和建筑业岗位消失。这迫使无数劳动者转向不断扩大的服务业，而这些岗位通常技能要求更低、薪资也更低。An estimated 200 million people, or at least one-quarter of China’s work force, are now engaged in insecure “gig” employment — delivering meals or packages, driving ride-hailing cars, selling goods online or doing other short-term work. According to a study last year, nearly half of gig workers have little to nothing in the way of a social safety net — which would include health care, a pension, unemployment benefits, maternity benefits and secure housing. The problem is worsened by chronic government underinvestment in social services. On top of that, advances in technology have given companies a precise view of seasonal demand and simplified recruiting, enabling them to hire and fire workers as needed.据估计，目前有2亿人——至少占中国劳动力的四分之一——从事着不稳定的“零工”工作，比如送外卖或送快递、开网约车、在网上卖货或做其他短期工作。根据去年的一项研究，近一半的零工劳动者几乎没有任何社会保障——包括医疗、养老金、失业救济、生育保险和住房保障。政府在公共服务方面长期投入不足，使问题更加严重。除此之外，技术的进步让公司能够精准把握季节性需求并简化招聘流程，使它们能够根据需要随时雇佣或解雇员工。Adding to worker insecurity is China’s household registration system, which restricts access to social services like schooling and health care outside one’s hometown. This effectively ensures that people from China’s vast countryside serve as cheap migrant labor for megacities like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Reform of the registration system has been discussed for decades, but eliminating it would shift enormous welfare costs onto those cities, which currently reap benefits from migrant labor without shouldering social costs.中国的户籍制度也进一步加剧了劳动者的不安全感。该制度限制人们在户籍所在地之外获取教育、医疗等社会服务。这实际上是确保了来自广大农村地区的人口为北京、上海、深圳等大城市提供廉价的流动劳动力。关于户籍制度改革的讨论已经持续了几十年，但如果彻底取消这一制度，将把巨额福利成本转移到这些城市身上，而这些城市目前能够在不承担社会成本的情况下享受外来劳动力带来的好处。These are hardly a foundation for a vibrant consumer economy, and the future is not looking better.在这样的条件下，很难建立起一个充满活力的消费型经济，而且未来看起来也不容乐观。The real estate crash, now five years old, has left homeowners paying mortgages on apartments they can’t sell. New families are a key driver of spending on homes, appliances and cars. But China’s people are marrying less frequently and having fewer babies: The population fell for the fourth straight year in 2025, and the fewest babies were born since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Fewer people, of course, means fewer consumers.这场已持续五年的房地产崩盘让房主们只能继续偿还那些卖不掉的公寓的房贷。新婚家庭是住房、家电和汽车消费的重要推动力。但中国人的结婚率下降，生育率也越来越低：2025年中国人口连续第四年下降，新生儿数量也创下自1949年中华人民共和国成立以来的最低水平。人口减少，自然也意味着消费者减少。The deeper question may be whether the Chinese Communist Party’s pledges to give consumers more of a role in the economy are real — or are empty promises to placate critics.更深层的问题或许在于，中国共产党关于让消费者在经济中发挥更大作用的承诺，到底是真心实意，还是为了安抚批评者而开出的空头支票。Consumer spending in China has hovered at 40 percent or less of China’s G.D.P. for years (compared with more than 65 percent in the United States). The government has introduced policies in recent years to encourage spending, but these typically take the form of rebates and subsidies for appliances, electronics and cars. This increases sales for manufacturers and retailers, but it doesn’t really improve the lot of the average consumer.多年来，中国居民消费占国内生产总值的比重一直徘徊在40%或以下（相比之下，美国这一比重超过65%）。近年来，政府出台了一些鼓励消费的政策，但这些政策通常采取的形式是对家电、电子产品及汽车提供补贴和返现。这虽然增加了制造商和零售商的销售额，却并没有真正改善普通消费者的处境。Increasing the role of consumer spending in China’s economy would mean surrendering some state control to the people, something the Communist Party is loath to do.如果要提高消费在中国经济中的比重，就意味着要将部分国家控制权让渡给民众，而这是中共所不愿做的。While the United States and Europe typically stimulate spending by putting money in consumers’ hands through tax cuts, direct payments to individuals and families or social safety nets that reduce the need to save for emergencies, China’s government manages the economy primarily through the country’s companies. It directs investment capital to them, grants them subsidies and uses other means to get the business sector to execute the party’s industrial policies.在美国和欧洲，政府通常通过减税、向个人和家庭直接发放补贴，或者通过完善社会保障体系来减少人们为应对突发情况的储蓄需要，从而刺激消费。而中国政府则主要通过企业来管理经济：将投资资金导向企业、给予它们补贴，并通过其他方式推动企业落实党的产业政策。Truly meaningful steps to increase the economic role of Chinese consumers would in effect redistribute income to households, leaving less capital for the party to direct toward strategic priorities like developing the tech industry, which Beijing sees as essential to securing the country’s technological self-sufficiency and competing with the United States.如果要真正提高中国消费者在经济中的作用，实际上就意味着把收入重新分配给家庭，这样一来，党能够用于引导资本投向战略优先领域（例如发展科技产业）的资金就会减少。而北京认为，发展科技产业对于实现技术自给自足以及与美国竞争至关重要。The success of China’s export machine offers little incentive for the Communist Party to change course and gamble on a new consumer-focused strategy. Trade surpluses may create tension with trading partners, but they earn Beijing massive amounts of hard currency and generate endless headlines about Chinese export dominance in electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries, ships and many other products. All of this projects an image of Chinese economic strength to audiences at home and overseas.中国出口机器的成功几乎无法激励共产党改变路线，去冒险尝试以消费者为中心的新战略。贸易顺差固然会与贸易伙伴产生摩擦，但也为北京赚取了大量硬通货，并催生出无数关于中国在电动车、太阳能电池板、电池、船舶及许多其他产品领域占据出口主导地位的新闻头条。所有这些都在国内外观众面前塑造了一种中国经济强大的形象。China’s government says the new five-year plan will lead to a marked increase in consumer spending. The more likely outcome is business as usual: more low-priced Chinese goods on world markets, more pressure on emerging economies struggling to spur their own development, even fewer Chinese imports of foreign products — and more tension with the rest of the world.中国政府表示，新的五年计划将促使居民消费支出的显著增长。但更可能出现的结果是一切照旧：世界市场上充斥着更多低价中国商品，新兴经济体推动自身发展的努力面临更大压力，中国从国外进口的商品进一步减少——以及与世界其他国家的紧张关系加剧。Anne Stevenson-Yang (@doumenzi)是股票分析公司J Capital Research的联合创始人和研究主任。她曾作为企业家、分析师和贸易倡导者在中国工作25年。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。