If wars are supposed to be bullish for markets, why aren’t stockE-mini S&P 500 Futures (Mar 2026)CME_MINI:ESH2026Beyond_Charts If wars are supposed to be bullish for markets, why aren’t stocks rallying? Markets are forward looking. If the outcome of this conflict were already clear, equities would likely be pushing toward new highs. Instead, rallies keep getting sold and the S&P has struggled to break above the highs set months ago. When price refuses to confirm the popular narrative, it usually means the market is seeing something others are missing. Weekly Macro Note The Objective: Finding Asymmetry Before the Crowd The primary objective of this publication has always been simple: Identify asymmetric opportunities before they become obvious. Over the years that framework has led to some remarkable early calls: • PLTR at $6 • Gold at $1600 • KGC at $6 • TSLA near $100 • GOOG near $80 …and dozens more. The second objective is more tactical: Identify high-probability support and resistance levels on shorter timeframes — intraday and weekly — to generate income through trading. But to do either of those successfully, you must view the market as it is, not as you want it to be. That means removing personal bias and being willing to listen to opposing views. If you cannot do that, you end up in an echo chamber — and markets punish echo chambers brutally. The current geopolitical situation is a perfect example. ⸻ How Markets Actually Work A common misconception is that markets can be mastered through technical indicators alone. Many traders believe charts themselves provide the edge. In reality, charts are a byproduct of liquidity flows. Markets are driven by: • Liquidity • Perception • Expectations • Feedback loops What we observe on charts is simply the continuous auction process reflecting those forces. The market does not know it is forming a head and shoulders or an inverted bat pattern. What it understands is much simpler: A level trades. That level is either accepted or rejected. And sometimes the most important signals occur when: • A level is rejected when everyone expected acceptance • Or accepted when everyone expected rejection That is the true language of markets. ⸻ What This Market Action Is Telling Us The recent market behavior raises an important question. Did people close to the administration know about this geopolitical escalation months ago? Consider this: The S&P 500 has not made a meaningful new high since October 2025. That period coincides with when I began warning readers that opportunities were becoming scarce, especially among mega-cap technology stocks. Since September, I have been lukewarm on most equities, particularly large tech names that appeared to be undergoing distribution near the highs. Only a few names such as GOOG and AMZN held up relatively well — coincidentally two of the few mega caps spared from the worst of the recent selloff. ⸻ Why “Wars Are Bullish” Didn’t Apply Here Historically, markets often rally during wartime. But that has not been the case here. If Iran were truly close to defeat or surrender, we would likely be seeing new highs in equities already. Markets are forward-looking. Instead, rallies continue to be sold. One reason may be that the administration itself operates differently than previous ones. Trump is fundamentally a disruptor, and many market moves have aligned closely with his statements or late-night communications reported by journalists. In that sense, market volatility often mirrors the unpredictability of his decision-making process. ⸻ The Reality About Iran Iran is not a typical state. It is what political scientists call a civilizational state — similar to China or Russia. These are societies with thousands of years of cultural continuity and cohesion. Civilizational states historically do not surrender easily, regardless of the cost. This is a critical factor investors must understand. ⸻ What My Sources Are Indicating From several sources I trust, the pressure on Washington to de-escalate is intense. Countries including: • Japan • South Korea • India • Gulf States are warning that prolonged disruption to energy supply could trigger a global recession. They are actively pushing for an off-ramp. Trump himself governs largely by instinct, and instinct can shift quickly under pressure. The situation in Venezuela created an easy victory template. Iran, however, is a completely different geopolitical landscape. ⸻ What Happens Next Several developments now appear highly likely. 1. Energy disruption Energy production in the region may remain disrupted for weeks or months, even if the conflict ends immediately. 2. Inflation pressure Food and energy inflation could surge in the coming months. 3. Federal Reserve response This may force the Fed to pause rate cuts if inflation rises again above 3%. 4. Global economic impact The effects will not be limited to the United States — they could ripple across all major economies. ⸻ The Key Risk: Leadership Vacuum Even if Washington wants out of the conflict, there is now a serious complication. The central leadership in Iran has been eliminated. That creates a power vacuum, potentially filled by more radical factions. Even with a ceasefire announcement, instability could continue for months, delaying normalization of trade routes and oil supply. Investors must factor that risk into any long-term market outlook. ⸻ The best insights are behind the paywall. Start your 7-day free trial to see the full analysis link in Bio. Trade the levels. Ignore the noise. — Beyond Charts