How You Should Be Looking at the S&P Right Now S&P 500SP:SPXThe_STAYesterday’s price action gave us something important: the 200 day moving average held. That’s always a level worth watching. But holding support is only half the story — the real question is what comes next. 🔍 The Big Picture: Long Term Structure Matters When you zoom out, the S&P has struggled around the 7,000 psychological level and has also hit the top of a long term channel dating back to 2009. That combination suggests the broader up move may be losing momentum, with the market potentially shifting into a medium to long term downturn. 📊 Short-Term Implications If the long term structure is weakening, this rebound is more likely to be corrective, not the start of a new bull leg. We’ve already seen: •Previous lows taken out •Lower reaction highs forming •Momentum rolling over This is classic early trend down behaviour. 🧭 Levels That Matter Now The 20 day moving average at 6,822 and the 55 day at 6,883 now sit above price and should act as strong resistance. Add in the Fibonacci retracements — 38.2% at 6,764 and 61.8% at 6,852 — and you get a tight cluster of resistance where rebounds are likely to fail. 🚨 The Line in the Sand The 200 day moving average at 6,608 remains the critical level. If price breaks below it: •The bearish bias strengthens •The corrective rebound scenario becomes the dominant one •Downside momentum could accelerate 🎯 Trading Takeaway Don’t get distracted by the bounce. Until the S&P can reclaim and hold above those key moving averages, the higher probability view is that rallies are more likely to fail than evolve into a new trend. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.