It’s a ‘black swan’ moment in oil but nowhere else. The stock market is at risk of a 20% fall, say these strategists.

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hostilities broke out, and the S&P 500 SPX didn’t break out of a three-month trading range until a week later.‘We’re living the simple life’: I was a fisherman and my wife was a nurse. We retired with $6 million. Here’s how we did it.‘Epic Fury’ has already canceled out Big Beautiful Bill’s tax refunds — even if the Iran war ended todayThe bond market is flashing a signal not seen since before the 2008 crisisThat market tranquility was the theme of an analysis by a team at RBC Capital Markets led by Jason Daw, head of North American rates strategy. If a black swan is a metaphor for rare, unpredictable market events, then it’s only the energy market that is seeing black-swan-style price dynamics, they say.Almost everything else — stocks, interest rates, credit, gold and the U.S. dollar — is having “very normal white swan types of moves.”-The RBC team quantifies this through what are called z-scores. Z-scores measure a price relative to its history — the more technical way of saying that is how many standard deviations away a data point is from its average. In oil’s case, it’s a seven-deviation move; everything else is in the 1- to 1.5-standard-deviation range.“There are several, albeit not iron clad, explanations why there [have] been benign moves: (1) markets outside of oil believe that the Iran situation will be resolved, (2) or if it is not, oil will not break the U.S. economy, or (3) investors have given up trading [U.S. President Donald] Trump,” they say.The moves in U.S. equities and U.S. Treasury securities have been “minuscule” relative not just to the swings in oil but also relative to the rise in the so-called fear gauge, the CBOE volatility index, or “VIX” VIX. They found an equivalent, or larger, six-week surge in the VIX has only happened 5% of the time since 2000 and 8% of the time in the bond-market volatility index called the “MOVE.”-“It is extremely rare for stocks to climb the wall of worry when the VIX has risen as much as now (only twice has it eked out small gains) and even besting the modest 4% drawdown is not the norm (5-15% declines have occurred more often). If the vol shock increases further, U.S. stocks may not be able to weather the storm as well,” the RBC strategists say.Their analysis of government bonds is similar — the reaction is subdued, not just compared with previous high-volatility times but also relative to the big moves seen in foreign markets like those for U.K. gilts and German bunds.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoTrending tickersGE GE Aerospace 291.61 -9.35 (-3.11%)FDX FedEx Corporation 356.11 +6.37 (+1.82%)SPOT Spotify Technology S.A. 482.52 -34.20 (-6.62%)PL Planet Labs PBC 26.96 +2.15 (+8.67%)VCX 76.16 +44.91 (+143.71%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersAXTI AXT, Inc. 58.09 +9.33 (+19.13%)TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd. 166.08 +24.12 (+16.99%)VET Vermilion Energy Inc. 14.42 +1.81 (+14.35%)SRRK Scholar Rock Holding Corporation 45.50 +5.71 (+14.35%)SIG Signet Jewelers Limited 89.56 +10.79 (+13.70%)Top losersHYMC Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation 31.76 -4.48 (-12.36%)CENX Century Aluminum Company 49.65 -5.69 (-10.28%)FAF First American Financial Corporation 58.24 -5.73 (-8.96%)AA Alcoa Corporation 58.65 -5.58 (-8.69%)LB LandBridge Company LLC 71.05 -6.61 (-8.51%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 178.56 -1.84 (-1.02%)VG Venture Global, Inc. 14.29 -0.56 (-3.77%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 2.4000 +0.0800 (+3.45%)RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. 16.12 +0.59 (+3.80%)MU Micron Technology, Inc. 444.27 -17.46 (-3.78%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events