赫海威2026年3月19日去年10月，特朗普总统与日本首相高市早苗在横滨以南横须贺港的“乔治·华盛顿”号航母上。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesPresident Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan have built a close relationship over the past few months, bonding over baseball and shared conservative values, and heaping praise on each other even as they spar over issues like trade.过去几个月，特朗普总统与日本首相高市早苗建立了密切的关系——两人因棒球和共同的保守价值观而产生共鸣，即使在贸易等问题上存在分歧时也相互大加赞赏。That friendship is about to undergo a major test on Thursday as Ms. Takaichi visits the White House for the first time.然而，这段友谊将在周四面临大考，届时高市将首次访问白宫。Spurned by European allies, Mr. Trump is expected to use the summit meeting to urge Japan to dispatch minesweepers and maritime forces to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, as the war in the Mideast enters its third week. He has already piled on the pressure, suggesting that Japan owes the United States for years of defense aid and that Japan must act because of its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil.随着欧洲盟友拒绝合作，预计特朗普将利用此次峰会敦促日本在中东战争进入第三周之际派遣扫雷艇和海上兵力，协助重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。他已经施加了压力，暗示日本多年来接受美国的防务援助是欠了人情的，而且由于日本高度依赖中东石油，它必须采取行动。The demands have put Ms. Takaichi, a hard-line conservative who last fall became the first woman to lead Japan as prime minister, in a difficult position. She is constrained not just by Japan’s pacifist constitution, but overwhelming public opposition: Only 9 percent of Japanese endorse the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, according to a recent poll by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper.这些要求让去年秋天成为日本首位女性首相的强硬保守派高市早苗陷入了困境。她不仅受到日本和平宪法的限制，而且还面临压倒性的公众反对：根据《朝日新闻》最近的一项民调，只有9%的日本人支持美以对伊朗的打击行动。Now Ms. Takaichi faces the delicate task of finding a way to signal support for Mr. Trump without getting entangled in the war. She must do so in the high-pressure forum of the White House, over lunch and dinner with a president who seems increasingly impatient and aggrieved.如今，高市面临的任务很微妙——要找到一种既能表示支持特朗普，又不会卷入战争的方法。而且她必须是在白宫这个高压场合，在与一位似乎越来越不耐烦、越来越愤愤不平的总统共进午餐和晚餐时做到这一点。2023年，日本海上自卫队的一艘扫雷艇在冲绳县附近海域。“This was supposed to be a pretty straightforward, easy summit,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “Now it’s exactly what the Japanese don’t want: an unpredictable situation with no obvious answers.”华盛顿美国企业研究所高级研究员扎克·库珀表示：“这原本应该是一场相当直接、轻松的峰会。现在却成了日本人最不希望看到的情况：一种没有明确答案、难以预测的局面。”The Iran crisis could hit Japan hard; the country imports almost all its energy, and about 95 percent of its oil comes from the Middle East — a fact that Mr. Trump has eagerly highlighted in recent days.伊朗危机可能对日本造成重创；日本几乎所有能源都依赖进口，其中约95%的石油来自中东——这一点在最近几天被特朗普反复强调。The United States is Japan’s chief ally, and Ms. Takaichi is counting on Mr. Trump for help in countering China’s growing military and economic clout in Asia. While European allies have openly sought distance from the conflict, Ms. Takaichi has been more equivocal.美国是日本的主要盟友，高市正指望特朗普帮助她抗衡中国在亚洲日益增长的军事和经济影响力。在美国的欧洲盟友公开寻求与冲突保持距离不同，高市的态度则更为含糊。She has said it would be “legally difficult” for Japan to order its navy to take part in security operations at sea, and that the Iran situation did not yet constitute a “survival-threatening” situation for Japan that would allow a military response. But she has also said she is considering “what we can do.” And she has refrained from commenting on the legality of the U.S.-Israeli attack.她曾表示，从法律角度看，日本很难命令其海军参与海上安全行动，而当前的伊朗局势尚未构成允许日本采取军事回应的“威胁国家生存”的情形。但她同时也表示，正在考虑“我们能做什么”。对于美以袭击的合法性，她一直不予置评。伊朗危机有可能对日本造成重创，因为日本的能源几乎完全依赖进口，其中约95%的石油来自中东。Mr. Trump appears to have his eye on Japan’s fleet of advanced minesweepers, which could help escort oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Japan deployed them to the Persian Gulf in 1991 — the military’s first overseas mission since the end of World War II — but only after the American combat mission there had ended.特朗普似乎看中了日本的先进扫雷艇舰队，它们可以帮助在霍尔木兹海峡为油轮护航。日本曾在1991年向波斯湾派遣扫雷艇——那是二战结束后日本自卫队的首次海外行动——但那是在美国作战行动已经结束后派出的。In 2019, during his first term, Mr. Trump pressured Japan to play a more active role in protecting its interests in the Middle East after a series of attacks on oil tankers in the region. Japan responded by sending maritime defense forces to patrol shipping lanes and gather intelligence. But it steered clear of the Strait of Hormuz, an apparent attempt to avoid giving the impression that it was standing with the United States against Iran, with which Japan has long maintained friendly relations.2019年，在特朗普的第一个任期内，中东发生一系列油轮遇袭事件后，他曾向日本施压，要求该国在保护其中东利益方面发挥更积极的作用。作为回应，日本派遣了海上自卫队巡逻航道并收集情报。但它避开了霍尔木兹海峡，显然是为了避免给人一种站在美国一边反对伊朗的印象，而日本与伊朗长期以来保持着友好关系。The question of dispatching the military overseas is fraught in Japan, where memories of World War II still linger. Pacifism is enshrined in the Constitution, with a clause known as Article 9 calling for the complete renunciation of war.在日本，是否向海外派遣军队始终是一个高度敏感的问题，因为二战的记忆仍然挥之不去。和平主义被写入宪法，其中被称为“第九条”的条款明确规定彻底放弃战争。In 2015, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — a friend to both Mr. Trump and Ms. Takaichi — made it easier to send the military abroad, revising the law to permit overseas combat missions alongside allied troops in the name of “collective self-defense.”2015年，时任首相安倍晋三——特朗普和高市早苗共同的朋友——放宽了向海外派遣自卫队的限制，同时修订法律，允许他们以“集体自卫”的名义与盟军一起执行海外作战任务。But the situation must be deemed a threat to Japan’s survival. Alternatively, the law permits the military to be deployed overseas — but only after fighting has stopped.但前提是，这种情况必须被认定为对日本生存构成威胁。另一种情况是，根据法律，自卫队也可以在战斗结束后被派往海外。2023年，日本种子岛附近，日本自卫队参加两栖登陆演习。Japanese lawmakers have raised concerns that the attacks by the United States and Israel violate international law, and some commentators have urged Ms. Takaichi to take a neutral approach.日本国会议员对美以的打击行动是否违反国际法表示担忧，一些评论人士也呼吁高市采取中立立场。“Dispatching Japanese patrol ships would almost certainly be seen as siding with the United States, undermining Japan’s standing in the international community,” read an editorial this week in Mainichi Shimbun, a prominent Japanese newspaper.“派遣日本巡逻舰几乎肯定会被视为站在美国一边，从而削弱日本在国际社会中的地位，”日本主要报纸《每日新闻》在本周的一篇社论写道。Mr. Trump and Ms. Takaichi had an easy rapport when they first met last October in Tokyo, discussing their shared admiration for Mr. Abe, who was assassinated in 2022.去年10月，特朗普与高市在东京首次会面时建立了融洽的关系，两人谈到了他们对2022年遇刺身亡的安倍晋三的共同敬仰。The summit this week was supposed to be a chance to rekindle that chemistry. Japanese officials had hoped to use the meeting to persuade Mr. Trump to avoid making a sweeping deal with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, that would jeopardize the security of allies in the region. Japan is also eager to highlight investments in the United States and joint efforts to reduce reliance on China for rare earth metals.本周的峰会本应是重新点燃这种默契的机会。日本官员原本希望利用此次会晤说服特朗普，避免与中国领导人习近平达成一项会危及地区盟友安全的全面协议。日本也急于强调在美国的投资，以及双方在减少对中国稀土金属依赖方面的合作努力。Ms. Takaichi will be looking to gauge Mr. Trump’s timeline and strategy for the war, analysts said, given the damage it could inflict on Japan’s economy and society. Japan is concerned that the conflict could affect its security if the United States continues to move warships, missiles and air defenses from Asia to the Middle East.分析人士称，考虑到这场战争可能对日本经济和社会造成的冲击，高市将试图摸清特朗普对这场战争的时间表和战略。日本担心，如果美国继续将战舰、导弹和防空力量从亚洲转移到中东，这场冲突可能会影响日本的安全。Jeffrey W. Hornung, an expert on Japan at the RAND Corporation, a research group in Washington, said that Ms. Takaichi would face the challenge of responding in real time to Mr. Trump’s demands.华盛顿智库兰德公司的日本问题专家杰弗里·霍农表示，高市将面临如何实时回应特朗普要求的挑战。“If Takaichi goes there and says, ‘This is a huge concern for us,’ and Trump turns around and says, ‘So what are you going to do about it?’— I don’t know how Japan answers that question,” he said.他说：“如果高市去了那里说，‘这对我们来说是一个重大关切’，而特朗普反问‘那你打算怎么办？’——我不知道日本如何回答这个问题。”Hisako Ueno对本文有报道贡献。赫海威(Javier C. Hernández)是《纽约时报》东京分社社长，领导时报对日本及周边地区的报道。在过去十年的大部分时间里，他一直在亚洲进行报道，此前曾任驻华记者。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。