NEIL MACFARQUHAR2026年3月19日周日，德黑兰一栋在空袭中受损的建筑被伊朗国旗包裹着。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York TimesAfter the United States and Israel went to war against Iran on Feb. 28, the U.S. military began issuing a bulletin every few days listing the number of targets hit. By Wednesday it was more than 7,800 in total, up from over 1,000 on the first day of the war, while a similar Israeli count of strikes stood at 7,600 late last week.2月28日美以对伊朗开战以来，美军每隔数日便发布公报，公布打击目标数量。截至周三，累计打击目标已超7800个，开战首日这一数字为1000余个；以色列方面的空袭统计数据显示，截至上周末，以军打击目标已达7600个。It is, by any measure, a bombing campaign of historic proportions, and senior U.S. officials have lauded it repeatedly as a crushing blow to the Iranian armed forces. “Never before has a modern, capable military, which Iran used to have, been so quickly destroyed and made combat ineffective, devastated,” Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, said at a news conference last week.无论以什么标准衡量，这都是一场历史性规模的轰炸行动。美国高层官员反复盛赞，此次行动对伊朗武装力量造成了毁灭性打击。国防部长皮特·海格塞思在上周的新闻发布会上表示：“伊朗曾拥有现代化、具备完备作战能力的军队，这样一支军队以如此快的速度被摧毁、丧失战斗力、遭到重创，这是前所未有的。”And yet, Iran is not entirely crippled militarily. It continues to retaliate, often in unconventional ways. Its resistance, along with the political defiance of its new leaders, evokes a decades-old pattern of unrealized expectations for American interventions in the region.然而，伊朗的军事力量并未完全瘫痪。它仍在持续反击，且往往采用非常规手段。伊朗的抵抗，加上其新任领导层的政治对抗姿态，让人想起数十年来美国在中东地区的干预行动中，屡屡出现的预期落空。Global oil prices have inched upward as Iranian attacks have curtailed exports through the narrow, perilous Strait of Hormuz, including hitting a tanker on Tuesday near the waterway. Virtually every night, a barrage of Iranian missiles hits Israel and Persian Gulf nations allied with the United States, unsettling the population. Most cause little damage, but overall the fighting has killed more than 2,300 people in Iran, Lebanon, Israel and across the region.伊朗的袭击限制了石油通过凶险狭窄的霍尔木兹海峡对外出口，全球油价随之小幅攀升，周二，伊朗还袭击了水道附近的一艘油轮。几乎每一夜，伊朗都会向以色列和美国的海湾盟友国发射密集导弹，引发当地民众不安。尽管大部分袭击造成的损失有限，但整场战事已在伊朗、黎巴嫩、以色列及整个地区造成超2300人死亡。周三，以色列拉马特甘空袭现场的急救人员。Iranian proxy militias in both Lebanon and Iraq have joined the fray, firing rockets into northern Israel and hitting the sprawling U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad.伊朗在黎巴嫩和伊拉克的代理民兵组织也已加入战局，向以色列北部发射火箭弹，并袭击了巴格达规模庞大的美国大使馆园区。Despite the overwhelming force brought to bear against Iran, and the serial killings of its leaders, the regime has not toppled. Analysts are now weighing to what extent the promises of a “New Middle East” emerging from the conflict could prove as illusory as the ones from previous wars that embroiled Gaza, Lebanon and Iraq.尽管对伊朗动用了压倒性军力，接连击杀其高层领导人，但伊朗政权并未倒台。分析人士如今正在评估，这场冲突将催生“新中东”的承诺究竟会在多大程度上像此前在被卷入加沙、黎巴嫩、伊拉克战争时做出的相关承诺一样，最终沦为泡影。The United States has a tendency to overestimate what political outcomes can be engineered using overwhelming military power while underestimating the fallout, said Caitlin Talmadge, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who specializes in Gulf security issues. “Air power is the U.S. drug of choice — we love to believe that it can achieve big political effects and also big military effects, yet the historical record doesn’t support that.”麻省理工学院专攻海湾安全问题的凯特琳·塔尔梅奇教授表示，美国总是倾向于高估动用压倒性军事实力所能塑造的政治结果，却低估其后续影响。“空中力量是美国偏爱的特效药——我们总愿意相信它能实现重大的政治，也能实现重大的军事效果，但历史记录并不支持这一点。”While President Trump and other top U.S. officials repeatedly boast that Iran’s air force is extinct and its navy sits at the bottom of the sea, analysts noted that the country was never expected to take on the United States in a direct confrontation using a conventional military.特朗普总统与美国其他高层官员屡屡吹嘘伊朗空军已全军覆没，海军也已沉入海底。但分析人士指出，外界本来也从未预期伊朗会动用常规军事力量，与美国展开正面对抗。Instead, it relies on asymmetrical warfare, tactics designed to extend the war indefinitely until, it hopes, the cost saps the will of the Trump administration and Israel.恰恰相反，伊朗依赖的是非对称作战——这类战术的核心目标是无限期拖长战争，希望战争代价耗尽特朗普政府与以色列的战斗意志。周五，德黑兰举行了“耶路撒冷日”游行，这是一项一年一度的反以色列活动。In the Gulf, for example, the naval wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has long used smaller craft to lay mines and deploys speedboats to mount lightning attacks. On land, Iran dispersed its forces to avoid their being vanquished in one fell swoop, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, before he was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the war’s first day, was said to have ordered a succession plan four layers deep for every central military and government post.例如，在海湾地区，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军长期使用小型船只布雷，出动快艇发动闪电式袭击。在陆地上，伊朗分散部署兵力，避免被一举歼灭。据称，在战争首日死于以色列空袭的阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊生前下令，为所有中央军事与政府职位设立了四层纵深的继任方案。Externally, drone and missile attacks strike targets that include military bases, oil infrastructure and airports in nearby Gulf countries not directly involved — all meant to stretch the battlefield as far as possible. “The main idea of their response is to expand the pain and inconvenience of this war for as many countries in the world as possible,” said Afshon Ostovar, the author of “Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East.”对外，伊朗通过无人机和导弹，袭击周边未直接参战的海湾国家的军事基地、石油基础设施和机场等目标。所有这些行动，都是为了尽可能扩大战场范围。《野心之战——美国、伊朗与中东的争斗》(Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East)一书作者阿夫申·奥斯托瓦尔表示：“伊朗反击的核心思路就是让全球尽可能多的国家都感受到这场战争带来的痛苦与麻烦。”From the regime’s perspective, he added, the stakes could not be higher, with Iran’s very survival at stake. “They are fighting for their positions and their lives,” he said.他还说，在伊朗政权看来，这关乎国家存亡，风险再高不过。“他们是在为自己的权位和性命而战，”他说。That pushed the often fractious leadership to set aside its differences, analysts said. The population is paying a huge price, with more than 1,300 people dead and urban residents either fleeing or living in fear as explosions erupt around them.分析人士称，这让素来内讧不断的伊朗领导层放下了分歧。而民众则付出了惨痛代价：已有超1300人死亡，城市居民要么逃离家园，要么在身边接连不断的爆炸声中惶惶度日。周五，一名女子从德黑兰一栋受损的建筑物里向外张望。At the start of the war, both Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel called on Iranians to resume the protests that stalled in January after security forces gunned down thousands of participants. With such forces now threatening to shoot protesters as traitors, not to mention the bombs raining down, Mr. Trump has acknowledged that the moment might not be ideal. However, Mr. Netanyahu continues to stress that Israel is trying to spur the conditions for an uprising, with its military targeting the domestic security forces across Iran.战争伊始，特朗普与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡都曾呼吁伊朗民众重启抗议活动——今年1月，伊朗安全部队枪杀了数千名抗议者后，相关抗议活动便陷入停滞。如今，安全部队威胁要将抗议者以叛国罪处决，更不用说还有漫天落下的炸弹，特朗普也已承认，当下或许并非发动抗议的理想时机。但内塔尼亚胡仍在强调，以色列正通过军事打击伊朗各地的国内安全部队，为民众起义创造条件。Tzachi Hanegbi, a former national security adviser to Mr. Netanyahu, wrote in the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Sunday that given their control of the skies, Israeli and American warplanes could provide close air support for protesters, acknowledging that it would be unprecedented.内塔尼亚胡的前国家安全顾问扎奇·哈内格比周日在以色列《新消息报》撰文称，以色列和美国战机掌握着制空权，可以为抗议者提供近距离空中支援，他也承认这是史无前例的。Wars intended to reshape the Middle East in recent history have instead taken ever more violent detours.近代史上那些旨在重塑中东的战争最终都走上了愈发暴力的歧途。In August 1982, after Israel invaded Lebanon, Ariel Sharon, the Israeli minister of defense, predicted that by driving out the Palestine Liberation Organization, “the whole infrastructure of violence and revolution has been broken.”1982年8月，以色列入侵黎巴嫩后，时任以色列国防部长阿里埃勒·沙龙曾预言，赶走巴勒斯坦解放组织后，“暴力与革命的整个根基已被摧毁”。Within months, a nascent Hezbollah dispatched suicide bombers against Israeli troops with devastating effect. Israeli forces have returned to Lebanon repeatedly in a conflict that ebbs and flows but never really ended. The latest incursion came this month after Hezbollah opened a second front in the war in support of Iran.然而短短数月内，初兴的真主党就对以色列军队发动了自杀式炸弹袭击，造成毁灭性后果。此后以色列军队多次重返黎巴嫩，这场冲突时起时落，却从未真正终结。本月，真主党为支援伊朗，在战争中开辟第二战场，以色列再次发动了入侵。The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 similarly produced bloody, unforeseen consequences. The year before, Mr. Netanyahu told the U.S. Congress that “if you take out Saddam — Saddam’s regime — I guarantee it will have an enormous positive reverberations on the region.”2003年，美国入侵伊拉克，同样造成了血腥且始料未及的后果。此前一年，内塔尼亚胡曾对美国国会表示，“如果你们推翻萨达姆——萨达姆政权——我保证这将对该地区产生巨大的积极影响”。Almost 4,500 American soldiers died in the conflict, along with tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians. The war gave rise to the Islamic State, a force still destabilizing the Middle East, and spurred Iran to build an alliance of regional militias.在那场冲突中，近4500名美军士兵丧生，伊拉克平民死亡人数达到数万。那场战争催生了伊斯兰国，这股势力至今仍在扰乱中东局势，还促使伊朗建立起由地区民兵组成的联盟。上周贝鲁特发生爆炸，浓烟升腾。Some Israeli political commentators have likened the lack of an Iran strategy to Israel’s failure to dismantle the domination of both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.部分以色列政治评论员将对伊朗缺乏长远战略的状况和以色列未能铲除哈马斯在加沙、真主党在黎巴嫩的主导地位相提并论。“Within this framework, an exaggerated picture has been conveyed to the public,” Michael Milstein, an Israeli analyst and former intelligence officer, wrote in Yedioth Ahronot last weekend. “According to which Hezbollah was almost ‘evaporated,’ the Iranian threat has been removed, Hamas is expected to dissipate and the Arab world is preparing to form a strategic alliance with Israel.”以色列分析人士、前情报官员迈克尔·米尔斯坦上周末在《新消息报》撰文称：“在这套叙事框架下，一幅严重夸大的图景被传递给了公众。按照这套说法，真主党几乎‘灰飞烟灭’，伊朗威胁已被清除，哈马斯即将瓦解，阿拉伯世界正准备和以色列结成战略同盟。”Instead of conveying reality, Mr. Milstein said in an interview, Israel leaned toward “fantasy,” especially since the bloody attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, did not lead to any official inquiry into what mistakes had allowed Hamas to kill more than 1,200 Israelis near Gaza. The subsequent war left more than 70,000 Gazans dead, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry, and the entire enclave largely rubble.米尔斯坦在采访中表示，以色列非但没有如实传递现实，反而倾向于“幻想”。尤其是2023年10月7日的血腥袭击发生后，官方并未展开任何正式调查，研究哪些失误导致哈马斯在加沙附近杀害1200多名以色列人。据哈马斯运营的加沙卫生部称，随后的战争造成超7万名加沙人死亡，整个加沙地带几乎沦为一片废墟。Yet Hamas has not been dislodged, Mr. Milstein noted. “I really don’t like all these engineering ideas that we will redesign the Middle East and will change the hearts and minds of the people,” he said. “We really decided to learn nothing from history.”米尔斯坦指出，哈马斯至今仍未被推翻。“我实在不喜欢那些构想——我们要重新设计中东，改变民众的思想观念，”他说。“我们显然已经下定决心，不打算从历史当中吸取任何教训。”Lia Lapidot、John Ismay和Johnatan Reiss对本文有报道贡献。Neil MacFarquhar自1995年以来一直担任时报记者，撰写从战争到政治、艺术等一系列议题，报道范围既涵盖美国也包括国际议题。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。