3 min readMar 19, 2026 06:00 AM IST First published on: Mar 19, 2026 at 06:00 AM ISTAS the war launched by the US and Israel on Iran enters its third week, the killing of Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, by Israel and the strikes on South Pars, part of the world’s largest gasfield, mark an escalation both rapid and perilous. Larijani’s killing is another damaging blow to the regime after the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the war’s first day. Together with the killing of Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani, this decapitation strategy is one Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu believes could create the conditions for a popular uprising in Iran. On the evidence so far, the targeting of high-ranking leaders, one by one, has done little to rally the Iran street — instead, it could have shrunk the space for any diplomatic spadework that will, inevitably, have to follow the conflict once the pieces need to be picked up.History is replete with attempts at regime change that led to instability and chaos, leaving power vacuums for armed groups to exploit. In the case of Iran, however, that may not necessarily be a downside for Israel. Unlike the US, which has extensive economic and defence ties with Gulf states, Israel’s leadership may well view a prolonged war and an unstable Iran as favourable outcomes, not least in an election year for Netanyahu. The resignation letter of Joe Kent, director of the National Counterterrorism Centre, says the US “started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby”. This has come amid continuing lack of clarity in President Donald Trump’s war aims and claims. Despite Trump’s efforts to draw NATO into the conflict by pressing allies to deploy warships to open up the Strait of Hormuz, countries across Europe, as well as Japan, Australia, and Canada, have held firm in their refusal, leaving the US largely isolated, alongside Israel. US allies are justified in being cautious against joining a war they never supported.AdvertisementIndia’s energy security depends heavily on the Gulf and the uninterrupted flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly 1 crore Indian citizens live and work in the region, making both their welfare and the flow of remittances vital national interests. India has done well to keep all lines of communication open. Delhi’s understated diplomacy is beginning to show results: Last weekend, two Indian-flagged LPG carriers crossed the Strait. Undoubtedly, India and Israel share a growing, close strategic partnership that has strengthened in recent years. But Delhi must remain alert to the rapid escalation as it risks moving towards a point where Indian and Israeli interests begin to diverge.