Market trend analysis and forecastGoldOANDA:XAUUSDJun_Pro_002The Federal Reserve's decision and Chairman Powell's remarks exacerbated the decline in gold prices. Gold fell as low as around $4800, a drop of over $200, hitting its lowest price in nearly a month! This plunge in gold was not due to a failure of its safe-haven appeal, but rather a market balancing act between war, inflation, and monetary policy, adopting a "hawkish then dovish" approach. The surge in oil prices did not simply reflect a safe-haven logic, but rather strong inflation expectations. Therefore, the current pressure on gold mainly stems from short-term macroeconomic dynamics: a strong dollar, high interest rate expectations, and persistent inflation—these three factors combine to create a powerful bearish force. If inflation spirals out of control, the Federal Reserve will have to maintain high interest rates or even consider raising them, which would be a fatal blow to gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. The US dollar index surged significantly, regaining the 100 mark and closing up 0.73%. Spot gold came under pressure, falling below the $5000 and $4900 levels to around $4805, closing down 3.73%. Gold plummeted to its lowest point since March! The daily chart shows a sharp decline, breaking through the lower Bollinger Band. The 10-day and 7-day moving averages have crossed downwards, with resistance levels shifting down to 5040/4990. The price is gradually declining along the 5-day moving average, and the RSI indicator is trading below the midline. On the shorter-term 4-hour and hourly charts, the Bollinger Bands are widening downwards, with the price trading along the lower half of the band. The moving average system has formed a death cross and is trending downwards, and the RSI indicator is trading below the midline. The main trading strategy for gold is to sell at resistance levels on rallies. Buying is a secondary strategy, with short-term buying as an alternative. Sell on rallies in the 4880/4900 resistance zone, and buy on dips near the 4752/4720 support level.