KIM BHASIN, OMNIA AL DESOUKIE2026年3月20日Situated beneath the tallest building in the world, the Dubai Mall is usually a busy playground where the wealthy can purchase Rolex watches, Hermès handbags and Ferragamo shoes. They can even spend $80,000 on a Fabergé egg.坐落在世界最高建筑脚下的迪拜购物中心通常是一个热闹的消费乐园，富人们可以在这里买到劳力士手表、爱马仕手袋和菲拉格慕鞋子，甚至还能花8万美元买一枚法贝热彩蛋。Dubai has emerged as the most powerful growth engine for retail in the region. Half of all luxury goods sales in the Middle East come from the United Arab Emirates, and most of those transactions occur in Dubai, according to estimates from Morgan Stanley.迪拜已成为该地区零售业最强劲的增长引擎。根据摩根士丹利的估算，中东地区奢侈品销售总额的一半来自阿联酋，而这些交易大部分发生在迪拜。But nearly three weeks into the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, there were few shoppers inside the sprawling mall at the base of the Burj Khalifa. Around midday, a trickle of residents carried Louis Vuitton shopping bags with new purchases, and they peered through store windows at dresses and high heels. Most shops were open but empty.但在美国、以色列与伊朗之间的战争爆发近三周后，这座位于哈利法塔底部、占地广阔的购物中心里顾客寥寥。正午时分，只有零星几位居民拎着路易威登购物袋，带着新买的商品走动，而他们也只是透过橱窗打量连衣裙和高跟鞋。大多数店铺都开着门，却几乎没有顾客。The attacks from Iran have removed some of the protective aura of Dubai, a city promoted for decades as a safe, luxurious, tax-friendly haven for the world’s elite in a turbulent region. Drone strikes damaged Dubai International Airport and ignited a fire at the luxe Burj Al Arab hotel, where a suite can cost more than $20,000 per night. Tourism stopped and stranded travelers scrambled for ways to evacuate.来自伊朗的袭击削弱了迪拜一直以来所营造的安全光环。多年来，这座城市被宣传为动荡地区中的一个安全、奢华、税收友好的精英避风港。无人机袭击损坏了迪拜国际机场，并在奢华的帆船酒店引发火灾——那里的一间套房每晚价格可超过2万美元。旅游业陷入停滞，受困的旅客纷纷设法撤离。The war has created a crisis for luxury brands in Dubai. A report from Bernstein Research estimated that luxury sales in the Middle East will be cut in half in March because of a sharp drop in foreign visitors.这场战争为迪拜的奢侈品牌带来了危机。伯恩斯坦研究公司的一份报告估计，由于外国游客数量骤减，3月份中东地区的奢侈品销售将腰斩。“If the duration is limited, Dubai could go back to its former glory, and this is just going to be a dent,” said Luca Solca, an analyst at Bernstein based in Geneva. “If the war continues, then this would not be the case.”“如果持续时间有限，迪拜或许还能重回昔日辉煌，这不过是个小挫折而已，”伯恩斯坦驻日内瓦分析师卢卡·索尔卡表示。“但如果战争持续下去，那就是另外一回事了。”Dubai’s shopping scene is dominated by two opulent centers: the Dubai Mall and Mall of the Emirates. They’re home to many top European fashion houses, such as Chanel, Gucci and Saint Laurent, and together welcome more than 140 million visitors each year.迪拜的购物版图主要由两大奢华购物中心主导：迪拜购物中心和阿联酋购物中心。这里汇聚了众多欧洲顶级时尚品牌，如香奈儿、古驰和圣罗兰，两大商场每年合计接待超过1.4亿名访客。Industry executives in Europe and the United States said they worry that a prolonged war could jeopardize billions of dollars in sales of luxury goods, according to people familiar with their thinking.据知情人士透露，欧美的行业高管担心，如果战争持续下去，可能会危及数十亿美元的奢侈品销售。“We do not know what will happen, but we hope it will be short,” Andrea Guerra, the chief executive of Prada, which has four fashion boutiques in Dubai, told investors on a conference call this month as Iranian attacks escalated across the gulf nations, including in Bahrain, Kuwait and the U.A.E.随着伊朗对巴林、科威特和阿联酋等海湾国家的袭击升级，普拉达首席执行官安德烈亚·格拉在本月的一次投资者电话会议上表示：“我们不知道接下来会发生什么，但希望这场冲突会很快结束。”普拉达在迪拜设有四家精品店。The Middle East accounts for a small share of luxury sales around the world, yet strong spending in the region has buoyed the global luxury market as sales stagnated in Asia and Europe over the past couple of years. Chalhoub Group, a luxury distributor based in Dubai, declared last year that the sector was “unstoppable,” with sales in the Gulf region up 6 percent to nearly $13 billion in 2024.中东在全球奢侈品销售中所占份额不算大，但过去几年，随着亚洲和欧洲的销售陷入停滞，该地区的强劲消费支撑了全球奢侈品市场。总部位于迪拜的奢侈品经销商沙勒胡卜集团去年宣布，奢侈品行业“势不可挡”，2024年海湾地区的销售额增长了6%，接近130亿美元。Luxury conglomerates such as LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton have spent years cultivating relationships in Dubai. In 2014, Bernard Arnault, the company’s chairman and one of the richest people in the world, flew to the U.A.E. for a reception with Dubai’s ruler, Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Since then, LVMH has added more stores in Dubai’s malls and airport, and is set to open a Cheval Blanc resort on a nearby private island.像LVMH路威酩轩集团这样的奢侈品巨头多年来一直在迪拜深耕关系。2014年，公司董事长、全球最富有的人之一贝尔纳·阿尔诺曾飞往阿联酋，出席迪拜统治者穆罕默德·本·拉希德·阿勒马克图姆举行的招待会。此后，LVMH在迪拜的购物中心和机场增设了更多门店，并计划在附近的一座私人岛屿上开设一家白马庄园度假酒店。Brands were lured by wealthy residents willing to spend big on high-end items. A 2025 report from Visa showed that about one in every nine Dubai residents made at least one luxury retail purchase every three months — a greater share than those who live in New York, London, Paris or Singapore.这些品牌被当地的富裕居民所吸引，他们愿意在高端商品上大手笔消费。Visa在2025年的一份报告显示，大约每九名迪拜居民中，就有一人在每三个月内至少进行一次奢侈品消费，这一比例高于纽约、伦敦、巴黎或新加坡。Tourists are also major spenders. The U.A.E. has seen record growth in tourism in recent years, and the government has made infrastructure investments and a marketing push to attract more travelers. There was a 5 percent rise in international overnight visitors in Dubai last year, nearly reaching 20 million.游客同样是消费主力。阿联酋近年来旅游业增长创下纪录，政府通过基础设施投资和营销推广来吸引更多游客。去年，在迪拜过夜的国际游客数量增长了5%，接近2000万人次。Real estate developers are looking to build at least three new malls in Dubai in the coming years, including Dubai Square, an enormous indoor city set to open in 2028 at a cost of nearly $50 billion. Futuristic plans involve an integrated transportation network and interior lanes for electric vehicles.房地产开发商计划未来几年在迪拜至少再建三座购物中心，其中包括将于2028年开业、耗资近500亿美元的巨型室内城市——迪拜广场。其未来主义风格的规划包括一体化交通网络，以及供电动车行驶的室内道路。As Iranian strikes spread around the region this month, Emirati leaders visited the Dubai Mall, in an effort to project calm as residents watched missile interceptions from their homes. A video posted by the emirate’s official media office showed the U.A.E. president, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and the crown prince of Dubai, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum, walking past stores and waving to workers.随着本月伊朗的袭击在该地区蔓延，当民众在家中观看导弹拦截的同时，阿联酋领导人前往迪拜购物中心，试图向外界传递一种淡定的信号。阿联酋官方媒体办公室发布的一段视频显示，阿联酋总统穆罕默德·本·扎耶德·阿勒纳哈扬以及迪拜王储谢赫·穆罕默德·阿勒马克图姆在商场内走过一家家店铺，向工作人员挥手致意。For the few shoppers at the mall this week, there was a sense of normalcy amid the tumult. Rachel Duzan, an expatriate from Pakistan who runs an events company, had wanted a Dior beach hat, but was told that it wasn’t available because shipments into the country were halted. She decided to buy a Jacquemus bag instead.对于本周仍在商场里购物的少数顾客来说，在动荡之中依然能感受到一丝“正常感”。来自巴基斯坦的外籍人士蕾切尔·杜赞经营着一家活动公司，她原本想买一顶迪奥的沙滩帽，但被告知由于物流中断，目前无货。于是她转而买了一个Jacquemus的包。“I know I shouldn’t be shopping,” said Ms. Duzan, 36. “But I can’t help it.”“我知道我不该买东西，”36岁的杜桑说。“但我就是忍不住。”Kim Bhasin是一名商业记者，为《纽约时报》报道零售业新闻。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site