Moment of Truth for the QQQInvesco QQQ Trust Series IBATS:QQQbrendanvansonThis coming week is a massive week for the QQQ index when we're talking about structure. There are a lot of bearish indicators, and few bullish. But as choppy as this market has been the past 4-5 months, I think anything is possible. However, I do think you need to at least be prepared to the downside. On Friday, we lost the 200 day moving average. The last time that happened, the index dropped from $490 to $405 in just a couple weeks. Moreover - if you believe in history repeating itself - check out how we got to the last drop. It's eerily similar. We had a double top pattern Dec24/Feb25. This year, we had one Nov25/Feb26. Last year, the catalyst to the drop was tariffs. This year, the war on Iran. Now the reason I say that this coming week is the moment of truth is that we're right at both the 200 day, and the old support from the drop at the end of November. If we lose this support, we'll likely see a re-test of that support and then a drop to the downside. If we lose this support, the most likely bottom is around $540 - which is the top of the "double top" pattern from 2024-2025. For me personally, this is kind of where I'm hoping we go. A drop to $540 is likely a good opportunity to buy. It might not happen. Even bearish pattern becomes bullish once it fails, so we'll have to wait and see. Now, I'm not going to short the market here, or ever. I do often buy puts on the QQQs to hedge in a limited manner, and I'll likely do so on Monday if we are fairly flat. But rather than "shorting" the index, I'm more likely to wait and see. I have cash on the sidelines and I'm ready to deploy should we get to the $540 range. Until then, peeps, be careful out there!