纪思道2026年3月17日Suppose Iran dispatched operatives to Mexico, where, from the Texas border, they fired a missile at an American base and, unintentionally but carelessly, demolished a nearby American school, killing 175 people.设想一下，如果伊朗派遣特工前往墨西哥，从得克萨斯州边境向美国基地发射导弹，但不经意间，并非有意地摧毁了附近的一所美国学校，杀死175人。What if they then blew up fuel depots, showering a chemical rain on residents? Then struck homes, schools and clinics, as Iran’s leader warned that “death, fire and fury” would so pulverize America that it could never be rebuilt?如果他们随后炸毁了燃料库，在居民们的头顶降下一场化学品的雨，那又会怎样？接着他们袭击了民居、学校和诊所，而伊朗领导人还警告说，“死亡、烈火与愤怒”将彻底摧毁美国，令其永远无法重建？In that case, President Trump — and all of us — would howl at outrageous attacks on innocent civilians. And we’d be right.如果发生这种情况，特朗普总统——以及我们所有人——都会对这种针对无辜平民的令人发指的袭击发出怒吼。而且我们的愤怒是正当的。War achieved an industrial savagery in World War II: After the firebombing of Tokyo, the United States boasted that it might have killed more people (perhaps 100,000) in six hours than ever before in history. After the war, in sober reflection, the United States helped lead a global effort to try to tame the savagery of conflict and, in particular, to shield civilians. The additional protocols to the Geneva Conventions, for example, stipulate that it is impermissible to destroy infrastructure that civilians depend on — such as “drinking water installations.”我们在第二次世界大战实现了工业级的残暴：在东京大轰炸之后，美国曾自夸在六小时内杀害的人数（约10万人）可能比历史上任何时候都多。战后，经过冷静的反思，美国参与发起了一场全球性的努力，试图遏制冲突的野蛮性，特别是保护平民。例如，《日内瓦公约》的附加议定书规定，摧毁平民赖以生存的基础设施——如“饮用水设施”——是不被允许的。In recent years, that veneer of civilization has seemed to slip away. After invading Ukraine, Russia bombed civilians and cut off their heat and electricity. In Gaza, Israel starved Palestinians, targeted children and destroyed health care and education systems, according to a U.N. commission. In Sudan, the United Arab Emirates has backed a militia that has starved civilians and engaged in mass murder and mass rape.近年来，那层文明的遮羞布似乎正在脱落。俄罗斯在入侵乌克兰后，轰炸平民并切断了他们的供暖和电力。据联合国一个委员会称，在加沙，以色列让巴勒斯坦人挨饿，针对儿童进行攻击，并摧毁了医疗和教育系统。在苏丹，阿拉伯联合酋长国支持的一支民兵组织导致平民饥荒，并进行了大规模的屠杀和强奸。The United States supplied weaponry used in Gaza and has failed to call out the Emirates, but it still — inconsistently, halfheartedly — professed to uphold the laws of war. Now in Iran, I fear we may be retreating even further from the principles we once proclaimed, loosening the shackles that civilized nations place on themselves to protect our shared humanity.美国为加沙战场提供了武器，且未能公开谴责阿联酋，但它仍然——尽管反复无常、心不在焉地——声称维护战争法。现在在伊朗，我担心我们可能正进一步背离我们曾经宣称的原则，松开了文明国家为了保护共同人性而给自己套上的枷锁。The attack on Iran appeared to violate international law, said Oona Hathaway, a Yale legal scholar and the president-elect of the American Society of International Law, because it neither had United Nations approval nor was necessary for immediate self-defense. Beyond that, while it is too early to be definitive, some of the American and Israeli strikes raise troubling questions about possible war crimes.耶鲁大学法学学者、美国国际法学会候任主席乌娜·哈撒韦表示，对伊朗的袭击似乎违反了国际法，因为它既未获得联合国批准，也没有迫在眉睫的自卫需求。除此之外，虽然现在定论还为时过早，但美国和以色列的一些袭击引发令人不安的疑问，关系到它们的行为是否构成了战争罪。The apparent U.S. bombing of a girls’ school, reportedly killing about 175 people, is not necessarily a war crime if it was an honest mistake, Hathaway said. But The Times reported that the targeting employed old data. If that reflected a reckless lack of care, it might rise to a war crime, she said.哈撒韦说，美军看起来对一所女校进行了轰炸，据报道造成约175人死亡，如果是无心之过，并不一定构成战争罪。但据《纽约时报》报道，目标定位使用了过时的数据。她说，如果这反映了一种漫不经心，那就可能构成战争罪。Iran reported that the United States had struck a desalination plant providing water to 30 villages, although the United States and Israel denied responsibility. The Iranian Red Crescent Society also said that attacks had hit more than 17,000 homes, 65 schools and 14 medical centers. UNICEF reports that more than 1,100 children have been killed or injured in the war so far, in multiple countries.伊朗报告称，美国袭击了一家为30个村庄提供水源的海水淡化厂，尽管美国和以色列对此予以否认。伊朗红新月会还表示，袭击波及了超过17000所民宅、65所学校和14个医疗中心。联合国儿童基金会报告称，到目前为止，这场涉及多个国家的战争已导致超过1100名儿童伤亡。David Crane, an American legal scholar and former prosecutor for war crimes, said that if a site like a desalination plant was used primarily for civilian purposes, striking it would be a war crime. He lamented that we are now in an age of “lawless conflict” propelled in part by the United States.美国法学者、前战争罪检察官戴维·克兰表示，如果像海水淡化厂这样的设施主要用于民用目的，对其进行打击即构成战争罪。他哀叹道，我们现在正处于一个由美国部分推动的“法外冲突”时代。I worry that if Trump grows increasingly frustrated and exhausts the target lists, he may be tempted to strike dual-use civilian infrastructure, such as the electrical grid or highways and bridges, so as to punish Iran and inflict broader misery that might provoke unrest.我担心，如果特朗普越来越沮丧，且列出的目标都已经完成，他可能会倾向于打击军民两用的基础设施，如电网、公路和桥梁，以此惩罚伊朗并制造更广泛的痛苦，从而挑起动乱。Indeed, the president and those close to him seem to be telegraphing such an approach.事实上，总统及其亲信似乎正在释放出这种信号。“We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world, if they do anything,” Trump told reporters. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth denounced “stupid rules of engagement” and dismantled the Pentagon office that sought to reduce civilian casualties in war. Senator Lindsey Graham boasted that “we’re going to blow the hell out of these people.”“如果他们采取任何行动，我们将给予极其沉重的打击，以至于他们或任何帮助他们的人都不可能再恢复那个地区的秩序，”特朗普告诉记者。国防部长皮特·海格塞斯谴责了“愚蠢的交战规则”，并裁撤了五角大楼中旨在减少战争平民伤亡的办公室。参议员林赛·格雷厄姆则吹嘘说，“我们要把这些人炸到九霄云外。”On social media, Trump warned that if Iran obstructs the Strait of Hormuz, the United States “will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them” (his spelling and capitalization).在社交媒体上，特朗普警告说，如果伊朗阻塞霍尔木兹海峡，美国“将使伊朗作为一个国家几乎不可能再重建——死亡、烈火与愤怒将降临在他们身上”。As Phillips O’Brien, an American scholar of military strategy, put it, “One might say he was threatening to commit one of the greatest war crimes in history.”正如美国军事战略学者菲利普斯·奥布莱恩所言：“可以说，他在威胁要犯下历史上最严重的战争罪行之一。”Other countries have noticed. While some leaders have applauded the attack on Iran, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of Spain described the American and Israeli war on Iran as reckless and illegal. The Swiss defense minister said that the American attack violated international law. Dominique de Villepin, a former French prime minister, called the American war “illegal, illegitimate, ineffective and dangerous” — and urged sanctions. In some eyes, Trump is taking us a step toward becoming a rogue state.其他国家已经注意到了这一点。虽然一些领导人对袭击伊朗表示赞赏，但西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯形容美以对伊战争是鲁莽且非法的。瑞士国防部长表示，美国的袭击违反了国际法。法国前总理多米尼克·德维尔潘称美国的战争“非法、不公正、无效且危险”，并敦促实施制裁。在某些人眼中，特朗普正带着我们走向一个流氓国家。There are more practical reasons to oppose Trump’s war: Overall, it has not toppled Iran’s dictatorship and might have strengthened it. We helped install a younger supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who may be even harder line than his father. Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz raises gas prices and threatens supplies of fertilizer. Despite immense cost in lives and treasure, both the American and Iranian people seem, for now, to be in a worse place than before Trump started the war.反对特朗普的战争还有更多现实的原因：总的来说，它并没有推翻伊朗的独裁统治，反而可能加强了它。在我们的助推下，一位更年轻的最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊上了台，他可能比他的父亲更加强硬。霍尔木兹海峡的封锁推高了汽油价格并威胁到化肥供应。尽管付出了巨大的生命和财产代价，但目前看来，美国和伊朗人民的处境都比特朗普发动战争前更糟。Wesley Clark, a retired four-star Army general, pointed to the practical challenges and lack of strategy and told me the war “is going off the rails.”退役陆军四星上将韦斯利·克拉克指出了一些现实的挑战和战略缺失，他告诉我这场战争“正在失控”。Step back, though, and the legacy may be even more chilling.然而，退一步看，这场战争留下的遗产可能更加令人胆寒。“The rules-based scaffolding meant to restrain the worst excesses of war is cracking,” warned Tom Fletcher, the United Nations humanitarian chief. I fear that he’s right and that “we are sliding ever deeper into a world where there are no longer any rules,” as Germany’s vice chancellor, Lars Klingbeil, put it — and it is the United States that is helping to lead the way.联合国人道主义事务负责人汤姆·弗莱彻警告说：“旨在限制战争恶行的规则化框架正在崩溃。”我担心他是对的，正如德国副总理拉尔斯·克林贝尔所言，“我们正越发深陷于一个不再有规则的世界”——而美国正是这一进程的引领者之一。In short, long after this war is behind us, we may remember it as part of a repudiation of the noble historical effort that we once led to limit the horrors of war. If so, all humanity is the loser.简而言之，在后人眼中，这场战争也许是对我们一度引领的、旨在减少战争恐怖的崇高历史努力的一次背离。如果真是这样，全人类都是输家。纪思道(Nicholas Kristof) 2001起成为时报专栏作家，曾两次获得普利策奖。他最新出版的回忆录名为《追逐希望：一名记者的报道生涯》(“Chasing Hope: A Reporter’s Life”)。欢迎在X上关注他：@NickKristof。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。