GBPUSD >>> Sterling Vulnerable as Defensive Dollar Meets Policy British Pound vs US DollarPEPPERSTONE:GBPUSDGoldvalleyCapCurrent conditions still favor a defensive dollar backdrop, but conviction is no longer clean enough to justify aggressive positioning. Liquidity stress remains the dominant driver, with yields and energy related pressure still supporting the dollar underneath the surface. At the same time, dollar strength has become more selective than broad, which means some major pairs still offer directional opportunities while others are increasingly vulnerable to distortion. That keeps downside pressure on the pound against the dollar, but only if price confirms the idea in a controlled way. This week matters because central bank communication sits at the center of the flow. When policy expectations dominate, price often reacts less to static macro logic and more to changes in tone, guidance, and repricing of future rate paths. That makes this a market where patience matters more than conviction. Transmission is weakening, drift is developing, and structural fragility remains elevated, which argues against broad exposure and favors a more defensive stance overall. For now, the cleaner approach is to stay patient and avoid forcing early entries. A short idea remains valid only if price returns into a high quality location after event flow settles and the dollar still holds support. With central bank risk concentrated through the week and payrolls on Friday, false breaks, temporary squeezes, and unstable reactions remain highly likely. If the dollar keeps its footing after event repricing, pound downside remains one of the cleaner bearish expressions, but execution should stay selective and avoid reacting too early. GoldvalleyCap | Citibag Trading Desk | QuantGPT