The market wants to know how many Fed rate cuts are coming in 2026 and the clearest indication of that will come in the Fed's dot plot, to be released along with the FOMC decision at 2 pm ET.Looking at the December dot plot is instructive as it shows the median at one rate cut but also notice the dispersion:3 estimates for a hike4 estimates for no change4 estimates for one cut4 estimates for two cuts2 estimates for three cuts1 estimate for four cuts1 estimate (Miran) for six cutsMy first prediction is that we will see compression here. It's not abundantly clear that both sides of the mandate are under pressure but the risks to inflation are obvious and it's virtually impossible for the Fed to hit its inflation target (nominal) though next February if commodity prices stay here.I would strongly expect the estimates for 4-6 cuts (100-150 bps) to come in, likely the two calls for 75 bps too. So the debate will fall more into:1 cut - current market pricing2-3 cuts - pricing before Iran warNow I could see some members being unwilling to move off those estimates due to expectations for a short war but that's going to be a tougher position to maintain as the days mount and the energy attacks escalate.Ultimately, what's going to matter to the market first is the median. Right now, you need three members to shift to 'unchanged' from hold/hike to get to unchanged as the median. I think that's realistic but it will be close, as December is a long ways away and unemployment worsened.A notable quirk here is that Cheryl Venable is replacing Rafael Bostic as the Atlanta Fed dot this month, as she's the interim President following his retirement. Little is known about her views and while it's fair to assume she will follow his lead, that could shift things. At the end of his tenure, Bostic was a hawk. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.