Fundamental Market Analysis for March 20, 2026PUSDJPYUS Dollar/Japanese YenSAXO:USDJPYFresh-Forexcast2004USD/JPY is trading near 157.900 after retreating from recent highs. The Bank of Japan kept the short-term rate unchanged at 0.75%, but once again pointed to inflation risks linked to expensive oil and a weak yen. For Japan’s economy, which depends on fuel imports, this reinforces expectations of further rate increases. Additional support for the yen comes from statements by the authorities about their readiness to respond to excessive volatility in the currency market. The closer the dollar moves toward the 160 yen area, the stronger the concerns about possible intervention. Because of this, some market participants prefer to reduce long positions in the pair, even despite higher interest rates in the United States. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and is not signaling rapid easing. However, for USD/JPY this factor has already been largely priced in. At the moment, greater weight is being given to expectations of further steps by the Bank of Japan and the risk of official action in response to yen weakness, which increases the probability of a decline in the pair. Trading recommendation: SELL 157.900, SL 158.350, TP 156.550