U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) — Stuck at the Scene of the CrimeU.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC:DXYbemfundingThe dollar has had a long and painful fall from grace. After peaking near 110.50 in January 2025 and spending the following months in a steady decline, DXY eventually bottomed out around 95.80 in February 2026, shedding nearly 13% over the course of a year. The recovery since that low has been gradual and unconvincing, and price now finds itself back at one of the most contested areas on the entire chart. Where we stand: Price is currently trading at 99.388, up 0.23% on the day and hovering right between the two major moving averages. The EMA 100 (99.085) has just been reclaimed, while the EMA 200 (98.523) sits slightly below and is beginning to flatten out after a prolonged decline. Both levels are bunched tightly together in the 98.50-99.10 area, creating a confluence zone that price has been grinding around for several weeks now. This tight compression between the EMAs rarely lasts long, and a directional move is likely building. The key question is whether the dollar can push through the 100 psychological level and build on the recovery, or whether it gets rejected here again and heads back toward the February lows. Levels to watch: 100.00 is the immediate ceiling and the level that has defined this entire recovery attempt. Price briefly broke above it last week before being pushed back and is now trying again. A clean daily close above 100 would be a significant development and open the door toward the 102-103 resistance zone above. 99.085 (EMA 100) is now the first support to watch on any pullback. Holding above it keeps the recovery narrative intact. Losing it on a daily close brings the EMA 200 at 98.523 back into play immediately. 95.80 is the February swing low and the level that absolutely cannot be broken if the bulls want to maintain any credibility on the longer-term chart. Bias: Cautiously bullish above 99.085. The EMAs are flattening and price is grinding higher, but conviction is still missing until 100 is clearly reclaimed. Invalidation: Daily close back below 98.523 (EMA 200). Not financial advice. Trade your own plan.