EURUSD: Dollar Remains in Control as Oil Shock Weighs on Europe?Euro/US DollarFX:EURUSDfxliquiditylabEURUSD: Dollar Remains in Control After a Cautious Fed and a Fresh Oil Shock EURUSD continues to trade with a bearish bias. The macro backdrop has deteriorated for the euro and improved for the dollar: Brent surged again after attacks on Middle East energy facilities, the Fed kept only one cut projected for 2026, and Powell reinforced the uncertainty surrounding the economic effects of the war. At the same time, markets have pushed the start of rate cuts further out, closer to September. On the European side, conditions remain more fragile. Higher oil and gas prices are once again putting more pressure on the euro area than on the United States, and markets have even started discussing a more hawkish path for European central banks because of the energy shock. That is not a supportive environment for a structural euro recovery. On the U.S. side, the picture remains relatively stronger. The Fed did not deliver any dovish relief, inflation is still a concern, and the dollar continues to receive support from both the higher-for-longer rate narrative and defensive flows linked to the war. Even when the dollar pauses intraday, the broader structure still favors USD. In practice, this leaves EURUSD vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. Short-term rebounds can still happen, especially if the dollar sees some profit-taking or if oil temporarily cools, but for now those moves still look more corrective than the start of a lasting reversal. As long as the market remains focused on expensive energy, weaker European growth, and a cautious Fed, the weaker side of the pair remains the euro. Conclusion: My broader view remains bearish on EURUSD. The pair may still produce technical rebounds in the short term, but the macro backdrop continues to favor the dollar. For that view to change in a more convincing way, the market would likely need to see a combination of lower oil prices, softer U.S. yields, and a more dovish Fed tone. For now, that does not look like the dominant scenario.