DAX eyes 22000 as the first stop of the Bear Cycle.Germany 40TRADENATION:DE40TradingShotExactly a month ago (February 20, see chart below) gave a strong Sell Signal on DAX (DE40) as the price was about to get rejected near its recurring Lower Highs pattern: Not only did our 24000 short-term Target get hit but the price also touched the 9-month Support Zone. Now back to the long-term 1W time-frame, we see that DAX is so far repeating two recent patterns: February 2022 and October 2023. The first was the start of the 2022 Bear Cycle and the second the first sub 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) correction since the Bear Cycle bottom. The structure that has preceded all three patterns is identical. Higher Highs rise on a Bullish Megaphone pattern that broke below both its 1D MA150 (black trend-line) and the 1W MA50, before testing the Support. However, the 2023 correction stopped on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement (blue) level and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), while the 2022 Bear Cycle naturally crashed much lower. The current pattern has already tested (and held) the 0.382 Fib and eyes the 1W MA100 next. At the same time it is about to touch the 3-year Channel Up bottom for the first time since the March 2025 Tariff War crash. As a result, if it breaks below, it is a first confirmation that the price action is closer to the 2022 Bear Cycle than the 'weaker' 2023 correction. In any case, the 1W MA100 is waiting for a price contact around 22000 based on its current trajectory. If it breaks below and confirms the Bear Cycle without a doubt, we expect the index to eventually complete again a -27.50% decline in total, targeting 18500. That would be marginally below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement (dashed) level, just like the October 2022 bottom was, which even breached marginally the 1M MA100 (red trend-line) that is the stock market's multi-year Support. On a sidenote, notice how the 1W RSI hit the 36.50 level, which is of high symmetrical importance as it supported the October 23 2023 Low, while at the same time it was breached on February 21 2022, when DAX broke below the Megaphone's Support. Perfect market symmetry among fractals that always explains a lot. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇