DAVID M. HALBFINGER2026年3月18日伊朗最高安全官员阿里·拉里贾尼，2024年于德黑兰。以色列军方于本周二宣布在一次空袭中将其击毙。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York TimesIsraeli military and political officials on Tuesday trumpeted the killing of Ali Larijani, Iran’s de facto leader, as a feat of intelligence and military prowess.以色列军方和政治官员周二大肆宣扬击杀伊朗事实上的领导人阿里·拉里贾尼，称这是情报和军事能力的杰出成就。Combined with a deadly strike targeting top commanders of the country’s internal-security militia, it was the most damaging blow to the Iranian leadership since the first day of the U.S.-Israeli attack. Airstrikes that day killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his top military commanders in a Tehran compound.再加上针对该国内部安全民兵高层指挥官的致命打击，这是继美以第一天的攻击之后，伊朗领导层遭受的最沉重打击。在第一天的行动中，对一个德黑兰大院的空袭杀死了最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊及其最高军事指挥官。It also highlighted how heavily Israel is relying on targeted killings to achieve its war aims — especially its goal of destabilizing the Iranian government and helping make way for a popular uprising by weakening its internal-security forces. Earlier this year, those forces killed thousands of unarmed protesters.这也凸显了以色列在实现战争目标时多么依赖定点清除——尤其是其目标是通过削弱伊朗内部安全力量来动摇伊朗政府，并为民众起义铺平道路。今年早些时候，这些力量杀害了数千名手无寸铁的抗议者。“If we persist in this, we will give them a chance to take their fate into their own hands,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israelis in a video message Tuesday.“如果我们坚持这样做，我们将给他们一个机会，让他们自己掌握命运，”总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡周二在一段视频信息中对以色列人说。Israel Katz, the country’s bombastic defense minister, said he had ordered the military to keep hunting down Iranian leaders and to “repeatedly cut off the head of the octopus and not let it grow.”言辞夸张的以色列国防部长以色列·卡茨表示，他已下令军方继续追杀伊朗领导人，“反复砍掉章鱼的头，不让它再生。”But Mr. Larijani’s death raises questions about whether Israel is killing so many Iranian leaders because that appears the surest way to achieve its military objectives — or merely because it can. The approach carries a risk of backfiring in unforeseeable ways.但拉里贾尼之死引发了疑问：以色列之所以杀死这么多伊朗领导人，是因为这似乎是实现军事目标的最可靠方式——还是仅仅因为它有这个能力。这种做法可能会产生出人意料的反效果。Israel has long experience eliminating its enemies.以色列在消灭敌人方面有着丰富的经验。In 1972, after 12 of its Olympic athletes were slain in Munich, Israel launched a yearslong campaign of vengeance aimed at killing every person responsible. In the early 2000s, it gunned down or blew up many Palestinians it accused of terrorism during the Second Intifada. And in 2024, it killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, in an airstrike on his headquarters in Beirut. (His successor was killed in an airstrike days later.)1972年，12名以色列运动员在慕尼黑奥运会期间被杀，以色列随后发起了一场长达数年的复仇行动，目标是杀死每一名责任人。2000年代初，在“第二次起义”期间，以色列枪杀或炸死了许多被其指控从事恐怖主义的巴勒斯坦人。2024年，它在贝鲁特总部空袭中杀死了真主党领导人哈桑·纳斯鲁拉。（他的继任者在几天后的空袭中也被杀死。）Some Israeli analysts say there is at least some basis to believe that the tactic could now undercut Iran enough that the government signals a readiness to compromise on its nuclear ambitions and ballistic-missile capabilities.一些以色列分析人士表示，至少有一定依据相信，这种战术现在可能足以削弱伊朗，让政府表示愿意在核野心和弹道导弹能力上做出妥协。Sima Shine, a former Mossad officer and expert on Iran and its proxies at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, noted that the Nasrallah killing helped weaken Hezbollah to the point that the Iranian-backed militant group agreed to a cease-fire with Israel in late 2024.前摩萨德官员、特拉维夫国家安全研究所伊朗及其代理人问题专家西玛·希恩指出，杀死纳斯鲁拉有助于削弱真主党，以至于这个伊朗支持的武装团体在2024年底同意与以色列停火。“It might come to a point where they say, this is too much for us,” Ms. Shine said. “We are not there yet, and they’re not saying it, but it might happen.”“到了一定的时候，他们可能会说，我们撑不下去了，”希恩说。“我们还没到那一步，他们还没这么说，但这是有可能的。”本月在德黑兰，伊朗人悼念逝世的最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊。Eliminating commanders of the internal security militia, the Basij, could similarly go a long way toward persuading its lower-ranking members “to wake up in the morning and not go to work,” she said.消灭内部安全民兵巴斯基的指挥官，同样可能在很大程度上说服其低级别成员“早上醒来决定不去上班”，她说。But killing a top Iranian leader like Mr. Larijani could prove counterproductive, depending on who takes his place, Israeli analysts warned.但以色列分析人士警告，杀死像拉里贾尼这样的伊朗高层领导人可能适得其反，这取决于谁接替他的位置。Mr. Larijani had a reputation as a pragmatist capable of working with moderates and hard-line military leaders alike, she said. His death could bolster hard-liners like the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, himself a former I.R.G.C. commander.希恩说，拉里贾尼以务实著称，能够同时与温和派和强硬派军事领导人合作。他的死亡可能加强像伊斯兰革命卫队负责人以及伊朗议会发言人穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫这样的强硬派的力量，后者本身也是前革命卫队指挥官。“They are the ones actually conducting the war,” Ms. Shine said. “And strengthening the I.R.G.C. means continuing the resistance, continuing the war, and making demands that are unacceptable to the U.S. and Israel.”“他们才是真正指挥这场战争的人，”希恩说。“加强革命卫队意味着继续抵抗、继续战争，并提出美国和以色列无法接受的要求。”Others argue that Iran’s leadership — its “bench,” in sports terms — is too deep for Israel ever to bring its government to the point of collapse. After Ayatollah Khamenei was killed, Iran named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a fellow hard-liner, to succeed him as supreme leader.其他人则认为，伊朗领导层的“板凳深度”（借用体育术语）太深，以色列永远无法把这个政府推到崩溃边缘。哈梅内伊被杀后，伊朗任命了他的儿子、同样强硬的穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊接任最高领袖。“Decapitation has its limitations,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence. “I don’t think we’ve scratched the surface in the ability of Iran to find replacements that can take over for the people that have been decapitated.”“斩首有其局限性，”前以色列军事情报伊朗部门负责人丹尼·西特里诺维奇说。“伊朗在斩首行动后能找到替代者，我认为我们还远未影响到他们在这方面的能力。”Mr. Citrinowicz noted that Israel killed nearly all of Hamas’s leaders in Gaza, and both Mr. Nasrallah and his successor as Hezbollah’s leader. Yet both organizations are still functioning, if significantly weakened.西特里诺维奇指出，以色列几乎杀死了加沙哈马斯的所有领导人，以及真主党的纳斯鲁拉及其继任者。然而这两个组织仍在运作，尽管明显削弱。“It’s not that I don’t think decapitation is an important tool,” he said. “But we can’t build a strategy only on that.”“并不是说我认为斩首不是重要工具，”他说。“但我们不能把斩首作为唯一战略。”A healthy respect for the unknown — like unintended consequences — also argues against an overreliance on targeted killings, said Ami Ayalon, 80, a former commander of Israel’s internal security agency and of its navy.前以色列国内安全机构和海军指挥官、现年80岁的阿米·阿亚隆也反对过度依赖定点清除，因为对未知的东西应该留有一些敬畏——比如意想不到的后果。In an interview, he recalled warning disbelieving American officials that toppling Saddam Hussein in Iraq would unleash chaos, not the flowering of democracy.在一次采访中，他回忆起曾警告不相信他的美国官员，推翻伊拉克萨达姆·侯赛因将引发混乱，而不是民主之花绽放。“We are very, very close to creating chaos not only in Iran, but all over the Middle East,” Mr. Ayalon said.“我们非常、非常接近在伊朗乃至整个中东制造混乱，”阿亚隆说。He faulted American and Israeli leaders for failing to articulate clear, achievable objectives for the war. And he suggested that Mr. Netanyahu’s optimistic but vague talk of “creating the conditions” for the Iranian people to overthrow the regime was misguided, misleading or both.他指责美国和以色列领导人未能就这场战争明确阐述一个清晰、可实现的目标。他还表示，内塔尼亚胡乐观但模糊地谈论“为伊朗人民推翻政权创造条件”，这要么他被误导了，要么是他在误导人，或两者兼有。“Let’s assume that Bibi is right,” he said, using Mr. Netanyahu’s nickname. “It will take months or years. There are millions of people who depend on the regime, and they understand that on the day after the war, they’re going to be slaughtered. And they will fight and kill in order to not see that happen.”“假设比比是对的，”他用内塔尼亚胡的昵称说。“这需要几个月或几年。有数百万人依赖这个政权，他们明白战争结束后他们立刻会被杀死。为了不让那一天到来，他们会战斗、会杀人。”Mr. Ayalon added: “In chess, there are stupid players who think that it’s enough to kill the king to win. But in the case of ideology, every player plays a major role on the battlefield.”阿亚隆补充道：“在国际象棋中，有些愚蠢的棋手以为杀死国王就赢了。但在意识形态层面，每个人都在战场上扮演重要角色。”David M. Halbfinger是《纽约时报》耶路撒冷分社社长，领导时报对以色列、加沙和西岸的报道。他在2017年至2021年间也曾担任此职，并在2021年至2025年期间任职美国政治新闻编辑。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。