'The straw that stirs the drink': Wall Street weighs impact of surging oil prices

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largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market," according to the International Energy Agency.An unprecedented amount of petroleum released from the IEA, along with easing of sanctions on Russian oil, are measures analysts say will help but won't solve the issue of higher oil prices."Unless the political and kinetic situation resolve, very fast in days, you're going to end up with a scarcity issue," Macquarie Group global energy strategist Vikas Dwivedi told Yahoo Finance."We don't actually think $150 is an outlier move in this situation," he added.Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices have surged, threatening to squeeze consumers and businesses. With oil prices more than $25 per barrel higher than before the war began, Wall Street is now factoring rising energy costs into inflation expectations, bond yields, and overall risk appetite."Crude is the straw that stirs the drink right now," Charlie McElligott, managing director of global equity derivatives for Nomura Securities, wrote in a client note.Read more: How oil price shocks ripple through your wallet, from gas to groceriesMcElligott noted that before the Iran conflict broke out on Feb. 28, markets had been pricing in lower inflation prospects and, until recently, "an almost exclusively 'dovish' forward policy paths" for central banks. That optimism is now evaporating.As for the Federal Reserve, Wall Street increasingly expects policymakers to keep interest rates unchanged for longer."A higher inflation path will make it harder for the Fed to start cutting soon," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on March 11, pushing back the first cut in their Fed forecast from June to September, followed by a second cut in December.Read more: February CPI breakdown: Inflation steadies, but consumers brace for energy falloutHowever, should the labor market weaken "sooner and more substantially" than expected, the analysts do not think inflation concerns would prevent earlier cuts.The expectation of higher inflation has pushed long-term US bond yields materially higher, as investors demand a higher premium for holding long-term debt. The 30-year yield (^TYX) is again nearing the 5% level, an area that has rattled stocks several times in recent years.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,724.51 +25.13 (+0.38%)Dow 3047,051.99 +105.58 (+0.22%)Nasdaq22,493.96 +119.78 (+0.54%)Russell 20002,518.17 +14.88 (+0.59%)VIX22.46 -1.05 (-4.46%)Gold5,005.70 +3.50 (+0.07%)Trending tickersADBE Adobe Inc. 254.08 +2.21 (+0.88%)BTC-USD Bitcoin USD 74,502.84 +554.87 (+0.75%)XYZ Block, Inc. 60.74 +0.89 (+1.49%)ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. 524.91 +8.17 (+1.58%)RBRK Rubrik, Inc. 52.73 +1.06 (+2.04%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersTSAT Telesat Corporation 42.71 +7.21 (+20.31%)LMND Lemonade, Inc. 67.42 +9.68 (+16.76%)ESLT Elbit Systems Ltd. 995.00 +120.50 (+13.78%)SEI Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. 64.44 +7.45 (+13.07%)BTDR Bitdeer Technologies Group 9.02 +0.82 (+9.94%)Top losersTME Tencent Music Entertainment Group 11.50 -3.59 (-23.77%)NBIS Nebius Group N.V. 114.54 -15.32 (-11.79%)CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd 104.71 -12.17 (-10.42%)ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. 50.78 -5.73 (-10.14%)FRPT Freshpet, Inc. 68.96 -6.41 (-8.52%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 183.14 -0.05 (-0.03%)INTC Intel Corporation 44.18 -1.58 (-3.45%)AAL American Airlines Group Inc. 10.89 +0.40 (+3.77%)ONDS Ondas Inc. 10.99 +0.46 (+4.36%)SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. 16.74 -0.89 (-5.08%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events