As the war in West Asia enters its fourth week, the latest indications — a US statement of “winding down” but not a ceasefire — are mixed. The prospects for energy availability and the global economy are at a crossroads. Depending on the choices the belligerents make, the war could be near its end — or only the end of the beginning. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz beyond the end of March or early April would be cause for deep economic concern globally. Iran has retained firm control of the strait, effectively wielding its principal weapon — the constriction of global energy flows.Although the US itself is self-sufficient in energy, American consumers are paying the prevailing global prices for fuel. The wish to prevent those from rising higher has led the US to temporarily un-sanction Iran’s own oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz.Most major countries can’t afford to have energy prices rise so high for so long that they tip the fragile global economy into a severe crisis. Where the war has left Europe and the Gulf statesEurope, which along with the then US administration, had negotiated curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action of 2015 and rued its subsequent abrogation, is now worried about how to deal with an even more intransigent Tehran. Faced with the situation in Ukraine, Europe can neither afford entanglement in the West Asia war nor a prolonged energy crisis. Story continues below this adStarker still is the predicament of the Gulf countries that have not only lost their main source of income due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and faced attacks by Iran, but will have to deal with the economic and regional political aftermath of the war. Also Read | Tehran’s longest-range missile attack yet: Why Diego Garcia matters — explainedThe wealthier ones with smaller populations such as the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait may recover more easily, but others such as Oman and Bahrain will find it much harder. Even Saudi Arabia and Iraq, with vast oil reserves but larger populations may find finances harder to balance. As oil and gas prices remain higher for longer, economic anxieties across Asia are mounting sharply. Simply put, the window that the US and Israel had to secure their objectives vis-à-vis Iran is closing. If they continue the conflict beyond the window, then they will have to do so within a much more adverse global political and economic context. The escalating energy riskThe Iranian government, having withstood the assassination of its leadership and retained its grip on the country, seems determined to fight on. With more than 15,000 targets having been struck within the country, their arsenal of missiles and drones must surely have dwindled but enough seem to have survived. Although reportedly over 90% of the Iranian attacks are being intercepted, those getting through are enough to cause enormous damage. Story continues below this adThe most severe such damage so far was caused this past week to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, in retaliation for Israel’s strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas facilities. Now, the shortage of natural gas looms larger. More than 12 million tons of annual LNG export capacity — 15% of Qatar’s total – was wiped out, and reconstruction is estimated to take 3-5 years.Also Read | Desperate measures: Why Trump suspended sanctions on Iranian oil at seaLNG spot prices have shot up in response, to levels double those prevailing immediately prior to the war. Whilst the start-up of new LNG production in the US, Canada and elsewhere in the coming months should compensate for this, spot LNG prices will nevertheless rise even higher if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond early-mid April, as the closure has taken all Qatari and Emirati LNG supply off the market. The Israeli attack on South Pars has destroyed 15% of Iran’s total gas production capacity which supplies Iran’s domestic needs and those of Iraq. Opening up the Strait of HormuzIt now appears that in the absence of a ceasefire, even naval escorts may not be able to ensure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Story continues below this adThe strait is crucial to the global economy, and hence to the course of war in the Gulf. But the military means to secure it, such as mine warfare ships, do not appear to be adequate.Moreover, the US and Israel do not seem to have adequate counter-measures to Iran’s cheap drones, despite the experience in Ukraine — where such drones have held back powerful land and naval forces. There is talk of ground troops sanitising the strait’s coastal zone and hinterland of missile and drone threats. But that would risk embroiling such forces in a protracted war against an enemy that can employ guerilla tactics on home ground. General (later US President) Dwight D. Eisenhower, architect and commander of the allied invasion of Europe in WWII, once said: “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything”. This seems to have been forgotten. The coastal areas of the Strait have many islands, inlets, hills and fishing villages from where guerillas equipped with missiles, drones as well as small, fast and expendable armed boats could operate for long. An escort by navy ships may not sufficiently protect merchant vessels against such threats. Story continues below this adGraphs, Data and Perspectives | Amid West Asia war, why central banks are between a rock and hard placeMost of the world’s navies, including the US Navy, are pre-eminent on the open ocean. But they may not readily possess the ‘brown water’ capabilities necessary to dominate the coastal zone. The rapid deployment of anti-drone technology on merchant and war ships will have to be undertaken on a large scale. India’s approach of negotiating safe passage of its merchant ships under escort by the Indian Navy, building on its balanced relations with all has been noted in all quarters. Under present circumstances, a negotiated solution brokered by a broad range of Asian, Gulf and European countries — while the US, hopefully desiring an end of hostilities, gets Israel on board — may be the best course one could wish for. Whether the belligerents would be willing to negotiate, and what their terms might be, remains to be seen.