International Crude Oil AnalysisWTI CRUDE OILTVC:USOILnbhmvbInternational crude oil is in a high-level consolidation phase driven by geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, prices are dominated by navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+ policies; in the medium to long term, the market will return to fundamentals of supply and demand as well as macroeconomic conditions. I. Core Drivers of the Surge 1.Geopolitical Conflicts: Largest Supply Disruption in History Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: Around 20%-30% of global seaborne crude oil passes through this waterway, with traffic plummeting by over 90%. Oil tankers are forced to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, pushing shipping costs up by more than 250%. Passive Production Cuts by Oil Producers: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait have implemented a combined passive production cut of approximately 6.7 million barrels per day due to export disruptions and full storage capacity, marking the largest supply shock in history. 2.Tightening Supply Side Voluntary Production Cuts: OPEC+ has extended its 2 million barrels per day production cut agreement through the end of 2026. Saudi Arabia has implemented an additional voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day, and Russia 500,000 barrels per day, bringing the total to 3.5 million barrels per day. Modest Production Increase: On March 1, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 206,000 barrels per day starting April 1. The scale exceeded expectations but is far from sufficient to fill the supply gap. 3.Macroeconomics and Finance The Federal Reserve significantly downgraded its rate-cut expectations at the March FOMC meeting, strengthening the U.S. dollar. However, as a physical asset, crude oil has stood out for its inflation-hedging properties, with capital shifting from gold to crude oil. II. Technical Analysis Support Levels: $94–97 per barrel Resistance Levels: $97–98.50 per barrel III. Strategy Tips In the short term, crude oil is highly likely to consolidate within the range of $94–98. Focus on the effectiveness of the $94 support level. If prices stabilize at the $94 support, rebound targets are $97–98–100. If $94 is broken decisively, the next target is $92. IV. Bullish Approach Buy on dips. Open long positions with light positions and set stop-loss orders.