To ETH or Not to ETH - That is the Question!!!

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To ETH or Not to ETH - That is the Question!!!Ethereum / USDBINANCE:ETHUSDAkeelahTradersHey, Traders and Happy Saturday to you. Well, the Crypto market continues to bounce around make repeated attempts to sucker buyers into the expected bull run again. So far, every energized bull attempt has been met with a Bear Slap to push it back down. We've focused a lot on BTC these past several posts, and I wanted to do a review on ETH to see what the market is telling us at this point. Is it going up? Is it going down? Or what in the world is happening. The Focus for today is purely on the Weekly Chart, so this structure is not dealing with the lower time frame moves that may play out over a week. The weekly candles are all we are interested in here. So, where are we now?: Well, for the past 7 months we have been on a steady fall, and despite all the fundamental reasons that ETH should be pumping, it has yet to find the bottom that every anxious buyer has been looking for. This started with a structural break on the daily back in August 2025 and that was confirmed in Sept (NOTE: before the so called October Flash Crash). The main issue at that time was that even though price pushed to an ATH of near $5000, the closest valid Weekly Demand Zone was a 45% pullback away (near $2700). So, we've seen a slow and steady bleed back to that level. And, the week of Feb 9 gave us the first in a year BOS down on the weekly. We are now sitting below that weekly zone, in an attempt to retest it and break back above. So, what is next?: From here, this Weekly Demand Zone that has taken months to draw the price back down is a strong area. But, this break below it is a major issue structurally, and there are only 3 real ways in my opinion to resolve it. Surprisingly, I can see 2 bullish cases and 1 bearish one. Those odds sound good, until you consider that the Bear case is a strong one. Here are the options I see: 1. A bullish response from this long awaited demand zone that pushes the price back up above it and establishes a significant floor. The H4 has already given us a BOS up to signal that the bear pressure may be finally weakening. This H4 BOS up is returning to its source and if that source holds (no closes below ~1820), then it could finally be Champagne and Caviar for the Bulls (uh...more like Clearly Canadian and ...maybe Crablegs for me). That is the least likely outcome from what I can see now, but we will know in the coming week or so. 2. The 2nd option is a continued fall, but with the goal of filling some of the more recent Fair Value Gaps and Key Levels from the "Ran up too much and too fast" push that led to the All Time High to begin with. There is a FVG around $1740 that is like a magnet screaming "come just a little closer and I can grab you". There is also a Key Monthly Level I have at around $1580 that could be the strongest support yet to finally stop the bleeding. A pull back to either of these with a strong bullish response could mean that the market has enough liquidity to push back up and never look back again. This is the most likely scenario in my opinion, mostly because today's ETH is not what ETH was 4 years ago. Some of the fundamental and economical systems in place now are likely strong enough to keep us from revisiting "blood bath" territory of the levels in option 3. So, for option 2 to play out, we need to see a strong bull response out of this FVG or Monthly Level with a structural break and retest at least on the daily. 3. The 3rd option is one nobody wants to hear, but there is a strong structural reason why it could play out. There are still several significant imbalances in the structure of ETH that may have been acceptable for a truly Decentralized Cryptocurrency that has gone global. But, with the infiltration of institutional money, ETFs, and all the other contaminants of Crypto, the amount of money pouring into the market for the long-term is overwhelming. These big players may demand a more stable foundation for the worlds 2nd largest crypto. If so, there are FVGs and other imbalances down as far as $1300. The top of the Main Weekly Source is around $1295, and if we get down that low, there are FVGs all over the place that could get tapped during a panic sell off. The more significant one is around $750 - $900. I know this is unthinkable territory for ETH, but it could happen, and it would be technically justified. So, that's the update on ETH. The Big question is which of these will actually play out? Let's READ and see. As always, I hope you all got some value out of our analysis and review. Please drop your questions, comments, or other feedback. I'd love to hear what you all think. Have a blessed week, and Happy Trading!