SPX lower. FED for now is not saving marketsSPX/9*9SP:SPX/9*9OtradehouseConditions are set for possible cyclical bear market. 1. Prolonged/escalated Iran conflict >> higher oil prices 2. Higher oil>>>higher prices in many parts of economy 3. No increase in liquidity (for now) to accommodate higher prices >>> less disposable income / lower corporate profits 4. Lower expected earnings >> lower stock prices. In December I added a post expecting ~$4500 on SPX in 2026 due to ongoing rotation out of risk assets. None of this is a certainty, but roadmap seems very feasible now. Few days ago Powell highlighted high risk with ongoing Iran conflict and stressed high uncertainty about economic impact. Yet, he didn’t increase liquidity to accommodate higher oil prices. He’s on his way out and has no interest in being blamed for another wave of inflation. New FED chair could inherit falling stock market and incoming recession. It could give them a good reason to start up the printer or lower rates or both. Short term there could easily be a bounce in stocks, but since 1/28/26 market is in clear daily downtrend. Feels like everyone thinks that if anything Feb 2025 $61XX level will act as a support. That’s exactly why I think it won’t hold. In Feb of 2025 and prior to it market was expecting growing earnings and lower rates. SPX is only ~5% away from $61XX with the risk of slowing earnings and uncertainty in rates. If conflict were to resolve and oil prices come down to where they were few months ago then everything changes, but at the moment I just don’t see it happening soon. Trump didnt rebrand DoD to DoWar for nothing.