What major banks are saying about EUR/USD current positionEuro/US DollarFX:EURUSDOrmirCobaEUR/USD: Near-term fragile. Goldman Sachs, ING, MUFG, Citi, and Crédit Agricole all see Europe as more vulnerable to the terms-of-trade shock from expensive energy. Tactical rebounds are possible, but broader desk views remain cautious to bearish over the medium term. ING expects a hawkish Fed dot-plot revision risk that could delay the next cut to 2027 and support the dollar tactically. ING remains constructive on EUR/USD over the medium term because it does not expect a repeat of the 2022 gas shock. ING sees EUR/USD downside risk in the near term toward 1.15 or even sub-1.1450 if energy or Fed risks intensify J.P. Morgan J.P. Morgan’s FX desk says the USD remains supported by energy risk and Fed repricing, but is not breaking out decisively. Crédit Agricole argues the Fed faces a stagflation dilemma and may still be able to support the USD if it tests dovish market pricing. Crédit Agricole thinks USD upside may be capped because the currency already screens rich against several G10 peers relative to short-rate spreads. Crédit Agricole sees the euro area facing a sharp near-term inflation shock, with HICP potentially rising to around 2.6% in March and 3.3% in May. Crédit Agricole’s risk index remains deep in risk-averse territory, reflecting higher energy prices, wider credit spreads, and higher FX volatility. MUFG expects a hawkish ECB hold, with officials seeking to avoid any impression of complacency about second-round inflation effects. MUFG argues FX is currently being driven more by oil and geopolitics than by relative rates. Citi sees potential for tactical USD selling if the FOMC leans dovish and US-Iran tensions move beyond peak intensity. Citi nonetheless treats any USD dip as a buying opportunity because Europe remains more exposed to the energy terms-of-trade shock. Citi remains bearish EUR/USD through H1 2026 and would use any ECB-induced EUR strength to sell.