Crude Oil Price OutlookWTI CRUDE OILTVC:USOILnbhmvbInternational crude oil is currently in a shock-rally phase driven primarily by geopolitical conflicts in the short term. Over the medium to long term, the market will return to fundamentals of supply and demand as well as macroeconomic conditions. I. Key Drivers of the Sharp Rally 1. Geopolitical Conflicts Strait of Hormuz Blockade: Approximately 20%–30% of global seaborne crude oil passes through this strait, with shipping volumes plunging by more than 90%. Tankers have been forced to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, pushing transportation costs up by over 250%. Passive Production Cuts by Oil Producers: Export disruptions and saturated inventories have led to combined passive output reductions of around 6.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait, creating the most severe supply crisis in history. 2. Sustained Tightening on the Supply Side Voluntary Production Cuts: OPEC+ has extended its 2 million bpd production cut agreement through the end of 2026. Saudi Arabia has implemented an additional voluntary cut of 1 million bpd, while Russia has cut 500,000 bpd, bringing the total reduction to 3.5 million bpd. Modest Output Increase: On March 1, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 206,000 bpd starting April 1. Although the increase exceeded market expectations, it remains far from sufficient to offset the supply shortfall. 3. Macroeconomic and Financial Conditions At its March FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve significantly downgraded its rate-cut expectations, leading to a stronger US dollar. However, as a physical asset, crude oil exhibits strong inflation-hedging properties, prompting capital flows from gold into the crude oil market. II. Technical Analysis Support Zone: $94–97 per barrel Resistance Zone: $97–98.50 per barrel III. Short-Term Price Outlook In the near term, crude oil is likely to **consolidate within the $94–98 range**. Watch for the strength of support at $94. If support at $94 holds, the rebound targets are $97, $98, and $100. If $94 breaks down, the next downside target is $92. 📌 I share my trading strategies every day.