Forex weekly review: fundamental analysis.S&P 500SP:SPXjohnelfedforexblogContrary to many predictions (mine included), the USD maintained its strength throughout the week starting Monday 22 September. The USD has been on the front foot since the FOMC meeting. Even though rate cuts are coming, it won't be as fast paced as the market priced in a few weeks ago. And this week the 'rate cut dial' moved again, (two cuts instead of three before year end?), thanks to a bout of positive US data (GDP and unemployment claims). Friday's 'in line with concenciuos' PCE data didn't give any clues as to what next week will bring, trading is a lot more straightforward when data releases are 'outside of concenciuos'. All things considered, inflation is falling (albeit slowly), company earnings remain upbeat, 'softening data' isn't softening too rapidly. Barring geopolitical concerns or fresh tariff woes, the 'soft landing narrative' remains. And I'll behind the new week with a 'tentative risk on bias'. My preference for a 'risk on' trade is AUD or GBP long vs JPY. But I am prepared to trade whichever currency has the momentum at the time Vs the JPY. And it is still up in the air as to whether the USD could be the long part or the short part of a 'risk on'' trade. Failing a risk on trade. It does seem the currencies are at times behaving according to 'interest rate speculation' the NZD in particular is having periods of weakness (dovish RNBZ, 0.5bp rate cut incoming?). Which opens the door to an AUD (hot CPI) NZD relative fundamental trade. Finally, the SNB held interest rates at 0%, seemingly reluctant to revert to negative rates. The SNB's hands are tied in terms of future moves. And until inflation falls far enough to warrant another cut, the CHF could remain relatively strong. On a personal note, I unfortunately missed the 'prime opportunities of the week'. ( Post CPI AUD long and Thursday's post US data USD long). It's easy to say with the benefit of hindsight but I would suggest both were valid opportunities in the immediate aftermath of the data release. Instead, I had to make do with a 'speculative' AUD USD 4hr support and resistance trade, which stopped out as the USD maintained its strength. Let's see what the new week brings.