Magma accumulation at depth of 4 km since July last year (image: Icelandic Met Office)Analysis of past events provides an estimated volume range required to trigger the next dike intrusion that might turn into a new eruption. Using a geodetic model, it is possible to calculate the time needed to recharge these volumes, including associated uncertainties.As of today, the lower threshold of 11 million m³ is expected to be reached on 27 September, and the upper threshold of 3 million m³ on 18 December, assuming current inflow rates continue. Once the lower bound is reached, the likelihood of a new diking event and eruption increases, and an eruption could occur at any time thereafter. The period from 27 September to 18 December therefore represents the medium-term forecast. This forecast will be updated as magma inflow rates change. As in previous events, a short-term forecast will be issued if the IMO real-time monitoring network detects signs of dike propagation.In light of this assessment, the IMO has raised the alert level for Reykjanes–Svartsengi from Level 1 to Level 2.