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On Tuesday, NY sugar posted a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, and London sugar posted a 4-year low as they extended their 7-month downtrend. StoneX on Tuesday projected a global sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the upcoming 2025/26 season, switching from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season.Coffee Prices Sink as Brazil Rains Aid the Coffee CropThree Reasons US Cattle Markets are a ConundrumRains in Brazil Hammer Coffee PricesTired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now!Higher sugar output in Brazil is negative for prices. Last Wednesday, Unica reported that Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of August rose by +18% y/y to 3.872 MT. Also, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills in the second half of August increased to 54.20% from 48.78% the same time last year. However, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through August fell -1.9% y/y to 26.758 MMT.Another bearish factor for sugar was last Tuesday's assertion from sugar trader Sucden that India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which is not enough to ease the country's sugar surplus and may prompt India's sugar mills to export as much as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of 2 MMT. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer.On August 29, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecast a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, the sixth consecutive year of sugar deficits. The ISO projects a global 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, improving from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. The ISO also projects 2025/26 global sugar production will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 global sugar consumption will increase +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.Expectations for abundant sugar supplies are bearish for prices. On June 30, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT, with global sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop. India's Meteorological Department reported on Monday that the cumulative monsoon rain in India as of September 22 was 893.8 mm, or 7% above normal. 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