Long USDCHF providing weak Swiss exportsUSD/CHFOANDA:USDCHFCosimoCalabreseA potential CHF weakening vs USD could more likely come through the trade balance channel rather than from FX interventions by the SNB. The latest Swiss export data is from July (before the U.S. tariffs were implemented). For context, around 20% of total exports excluding gold go to the U.S., and about half of that is pharmaceuticals. The CHF appreciation has been largely driven by the strong growth in exports, which has not been fully “recycled” by net financial outflows abroad. This has led to a repatriation of capital and, consequently, structural demand for CHF. The other possibility, which has not yet been officially reflected in the data, would be purchases of official reserves by the SNB and a subsequent increase in sight deposits. However, given that a return to NIRP is unlikely, any intervention would be sterilized to safeguard the policy rate floor, meaning the impact on CHF would be very limited.