NAIROBI, Kenya, Sep 28 – Former presidential adviser Moses Kuria has predicted that Kenya’s 2027 presidential election will head into a runoff, saying no candidate will secure the constitutional threshold to win outright in the first round.Kuria, who served in President William Ruto’s Cabinet until July, said the country’s maturing democracy is poised for a historic first.“Kenya’s fledgling multi-party democratic project has been growing gradually over the last 33 years. In 2027 a new chapter will be written in this book. For the first time the winner of the Presidential Election will be decided in a run-off. There will be no outright winner in the first round,” he remarked on Sunday.50 per cent +1 ruleUnder Article 138 of the Constitution, a candidate can only be declared president if they secure more than half of all the votes cast nationally (50 per cent plus 1 vote) and at least 25 percent of votes in more than half of the 47 counties.If no candidate meets this threshold, the law requires a fresh election within 30 days. Only the two leading candidates from the first round can contest the runoff, and the one who garners the most votes is declared president.Despite being in force since the 2010 Constitution, the runoff provision has never been triggered. Both the 2013 and 2022 presidential contests saw legal disputes over tallying and validity of results, but winners in both elections were declared after surpassing the 50 per cent plus one requirement.The 2017 presidential election went down in history as the first State House race nullified by court with President Uhuru Kenyatta winning a fresh poll boycotted by his opponent Raila Odinga after securing a 98 per cent win from a 39 per cent voiter turnout.Kuria’s remarks come amid speculation that shifting alliances, regional power balances, and emerging third forces could fragment the 2027 vote, making it harder for any single candidate to win in the first round.