Many investors and executives in Canada’s oil and gas industry say they doubt a major new pipeline will make Ottawa’s list of priority projects, ATB Capital Markets reported in its fall energy sector survey that also found the industry expects only modest production growth this year. Only a slim majority — 52 per cent — of energy insiders who weighed in on the bank’s latest industry barometer said a new pipeline project was either “probable” or “highly probable” to be added to the federal government’s list of major projects undergoing regulatory review over the next 12 months. About 20 per cent were uncertain, with a further 29 per cent suggesting a new pipeline was either “improbable” or “highly improbable”. The semi-annual report from ATB is based on responses from executives at 91 energy producers, oilfield services firms and institutional investors, and included candid, anonymized comments about the state of the sector. While it’s not a scientific survey, it’s a closely watched measure of sentiment in the industry. “Despite all the hoopla, I am very skeptical the Canadian government and large corporations can make it happen on the pipeline front,” wrote one executive from a private oil and gas production company. “Everyone loves to talk about it, no one is actually DOING it.” The timing of the survey, which was conducted between August 28 and September 11, may have contributed to some of the skepticism voiced by executives, ATB noted, since the Carney government designated its first five so-called “projects of national interest” on Sep. 11 — a list that did not include a new pipeline. Ottawa’s initial list did include LNG Canada ‘s second phase — already widely expected by industry to proceed — and the September announcement acknowledged the need for further work to develop a so-called “Pathways Plus” project which would combine a carbon capture project in Alberta’s oilsands with “additional energy infrastructure” to export oil. Despite persistent concerns that the industry will face pipeline constraints before the end of the decade, the survey found growing pessimism that previously cancelled oil pipeline projects — Northern Gateway, Keystone XL or Energy East — could be revived; with the share of executives deeming the revival of those projects as either “improbable” or “very unlikely” increasing to 77 per cent, from 65 per cent last spring. U.S. investment capital should be “flooding” into Canada’s oil and gas sector, wrote one executive of a public energy company, but without the export pipelines to match the surplus of domestic supply, Canada will “continue to languish” from the lack of foreign capital. “Thus far, there has been a lot of talk at the federal level, but very limited action and we feel this is unlikely to change,” they wrote. However, West Coast LNG expansion continues to be ranked as a top opportunity for the sector, with a growing majority anticipating that LNG Canada Phase 2 and Ksi Lisims LNG will receive positive final investment decisions before 2027. The survey also previewed modest hikes in activity and capital spending for the Canadian sector in 2026. The companies surveyed expected overall oil and gas production to rise by about five per cent over the next year, when weighted by output. About 88 per cent of executives from upstream producers reported they expect to grow production over the next 12 months, up from 79 per cent in the spring survey. Gas producers are expected to drive the largest push for growth in the oilpatch thanks to increased confidence in expanding liquefied natural gas export opportunities and a bullish outlook on Canadian gas pricing over the next few years, ATB said. Meanwhile, expectations for oil prices longer-term have continued to slide, with a majority of institutional investors and producers expecting the benchmark price of North American oil, known as West Texas Intermediate, to average between US$65-US$75 per barrel, over the next three to five years. The share of respondents expecting prices to average above US$75/bbl fell to 38 per cent from 44 per cent in the spring survey. Smith: New oilsands pipeline requires law changesWhat's the 'most Canadian' LNG project? Approximately 61 per cent of respondents expect U.S. benchmark Henry Hub gas prices to increase over the next 12 months. However, longer-term forecasts have settled back down after a bullish spring, with nearly half of respondents now expecting Henry Hub prices to range between US$2.50 and US$3.49 per thousand cubic feet over the next three to five years. The respondents to the fall survey were executives from 26 oilfield services companies, 33 oil and gas producers an 32 institutional investors. Email: mpotkins@postmedia.com