GOLD - USD Inverz Relation can change in extreem cases U.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC:DXYElGatoTrade The question is that are we in that case GC1! GOLDJ2026 SI1! USDX A few days ago I published a rushed warning about gold and silver. (my first video publication, which I had not planned to do unprepared but he situation pushed me into it). My view at that moment — and it still is — was that skyrocketing oil prices would strengthen the U.S. dollar against its peers. As a result, gold could fall by about 3–4% and silver by roughly 8–15%. As I write these lines, the oil price is around $106–107. The USDX is also positive at +0.46%, while gold and silver are slightly negative. The dynamics and reaction of the dollar have concerned me since the beginning of this conflict, especially last Friday (03/03/2026), which eventually raised doubts in my mind about my logic. Is something changed in the rules and common moves.... of the market. I found this article https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/metals/2025/Gold-and-the-US-Dollar-An-Evolving-Relationship.html The most important part - the reasons why its happned First, geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East instability, drove safe-haven demand for both gold and the dollar. In times of global uncertainty, investors often flock to these traditional safe harbors regardless of their typical correlation. Second, central bank gold purchasing reached historic levels. China, Russia and several emerging market economies significantly increased their gold reserves to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets, providing steady support for gold prices despite dollar strength. Third, despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening cycle, persistent inflation concerns kept gold attractive as a traditional inflation hedge. While higher interest rates typically pressure gold, the market sentiment suggested inflation might remain sticky, sustaining gold's appeal. The first reason is absolutely present today and even more serious with the new war. The second seems to be slowing down as may central banks slower the gold purchase. Source : Metals Focus, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council And finally, the third point remains an open question: how will the Federal Reserve and other central banks act? The officially expected duration of the operation is 5 to 8 weeks, which could be sufficient to change the course of inflation — though probably not worldwide. Personally, I do not believe that Iran will surrender without ground fighting, and I do not think it will happen within eight weeks. At least to me, that timeline seems too optimistic. Conclusion If central banks downplay the inflationary pressure while oil prices remain elevated for more than one month, the same phenomenon could repeat itself, and the prices of gold, the U.S. dollar, and especially silver could surge.. significantly. We need to pay extra attention to speeaches and indications related to their monetary policy paths. If they wont be preventive, the market will be! Bonus: Keep your natural gas position if you bought at the lows around $2.8–3. It may not skyrocket back to $8 right now, but if this conflict continues through August without any signs of the war ending — and if the infrastructure capacity is not damaged further — your Christmas gift may arrive early in your trading account. NATGASMINI1!