ANTON TROIANOVSKI2026年3月9日特朗普政府在伊朗问题上的一些言辞，与俄罗斯在2022年入侵乌克兰时所使用的如出一辙。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesDefense Secretary Pete Hegseth said last Monday that the United States “didn’t start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it.”国防部长皮特·海格塞斯上周一表示，美国“不是这场战争的发动者，但在特朗普总统的领导下，我们会是战争的终结者”。After he invaded Ukraine in 2022, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia put it this way: “We didn’t start the so-called war in Ukraine. Rather, we are trying to finish it.”俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京在2022年入侵乌克兰后也曾这样表态：“所谓乌克兰战争不是我们发动的。我们倒是在努力结束它。”Mr. Putin’s war was a disastrous ground invasion of a fledgling democracy. Mr. Trump’s war on Iran is a sophisticated bombing campaign against an aggressive theocracy that was killing its own people in the streets. But some similarities are uncanny, starting with the White House and the Kremlin both trying to avoid calling their actions acts of war.普京的战争对一个新生的民主国家发起了灾难性的地面入侵。而特朗普对伊朗的战争，则是一场针对一个在街头杀害本国人民、具有侵略性的神权政体所进行的精密轰炸行动。然而，其中的一些相似之处令人感到不安，首先便是白宫和克里姆林宫都在试图避免将自己的行为称为战争行为。Asked last week if “this is war,” Speaker Mike Johnson responded: “I think it’s an operation.”上周被问及“这是否是战争”时，众议院议长迈克·约翰逊回答道：“我认为这是一次行动。”“This is a special military operation,” Mr. Johnson’s Russian counterpart, Vyacheslav Volodin, the State Duma speaker, said two months into his country’s invasion, sticking to the Kremlin’s official terminology. “If Russia had started a full-scale war, it would have been over long ago.”“这是一次特别军事行动，”约翰逊在俄罗斯的对等官员、国家杜马主席维亚切斯拉夫·沃洛金在入侵开始两个月时如是说，他坚持使用克里姆林宫的官方术语。“如果俄罗斯发动的是全面战争，那它早就结束了。”Shifting objectives, an exaggerated threat, an ambiguous mission: The many Russian echoes in the White House’s messaging on Iran underscore the risks of a vaguely defined, open-ended war in which the attacking party pins its hopes on regime change.不断变动的目标、夸大的威胁、模糊的使命：白宫在伊朗问题上的表态多次回响着俄罗斯的辞令，这突显了一场定义模糊、不设期限且攻击方寄希望于“政权更迭”的战争所带来的风险。“We haven’t even yet started anything in earnest,” Mr. Putin said in July 2022, trying to project defiance after months of fighting.“我们甚至还没有真正动手，”普京在2022年7月说道，在数月的战斗，他试图表现一种轻蔑的态度。“We haven’t even started hitting them hard,” Mr. Trump told CNN last Monday.“我们甚至还没开始发力打击他们，”特朗普上周一告诉CNN。I was in Moscow when Mr. Putin gave an early morning address to his nation on Feb. 24, 2022, announcing his “special military operation,” a term now so ingrained that its Russian initials, “S.V.O.,” are shorthand for the war against Ukraine.2022年2月24日凌晨，当普京向全国发表讲话宣布“特别军事行动”时，我正在莫斯科。这个词现在已经如此深入人心，以至于其俄文首字母缩写“SVO”已成为对乌战争的代名词。The speech portrayed decades of grievance with Ukraine and the West as leaving Russia “no other choice” but to attack. One of its most chilling moments was Mr. Putin’s plea to Ukrainian soldiers to “immediately lay down arms and go home,” and his warning that if they did not, “responsibility for the possible bloodshed will lie fully and wholly with the ruling Ukrainian regime.”在那场讲话中，他称数十年来与乌克兰和西方的恩怨让俄罗斯“别无选择”，只能发动进攻。其中最令人不寒而栗的时刻之一是普京要求乌克兰士兵“立即放下武器回家”，并警告说如果他们不这样做，“可能发生的流血的责任，将完全由乌克兰政权承担”。So it was startling when Mr. Trump struck similar notes, albeit in a “USA” baseball cap, in his overnight speech declaring “major combat operations” in Iran. Overstating the threat of Iran’s missiles, Mr. Trump spoke of decades of Iranian “bloodshed and mass murder,” and asserted that “we can’t take it anymore.” He said Iranian soldiers needed to “lay down your weapons” or “face certain death.”因此，当特朗普在宣布对伊朗进行“重大作战行动”的深夜演讲中也表现出类似的态度时，令人感到震惊，尽管他当时戴着一顶写着“USA”的棒球帽。特朗普夸大了伊朗导弹的威胁，谈到了伊朗数十年的“流血和大规模屠杀”，并断言“我们不能再忍了”。他说伊朗士兵需要“放下武器”，否则“必死无疑”。周五礼拜结束后，政府支持者在德黑兰的大莫萨拉清真寺游行。白宫本周在伊朗问题上传达的信息凸显了一场定义模糊、不设期限，且攻击方将希望寄托于“政权更迭”的战争所带来的风险。I did another double take when Mr. Trump the next day repeated his call for Iranian soldiers to disarm, and urged Iranians to “seize this moment” and topple their government. Mr. Putin, too, tried again on the second day of his war to get Ukrainian soldiers to stop resisting, and to “take power into your own hands.”次日特朗普再次要求伊朗士兵解除武装，并敦促伊朗人“抓住这一时刻”推翻政府时，我也再次以为自己眼花了。普京同样在战争的第二天再次尝试让乌克兰士兵停止抵抗，并要求他们“把权力掌握在自己手中”。Western officials and Russian elites expected the war to be over quickly. Russian officers were told to pack their dress uniforms in anticipation of a quick military parade in Kyiv. But even as Russia was falsely claiming to have established “total air superiority” over Ukraine, its overextended supply lines in the military’s disastrous sprint for Kyiv became easy targets for Ukrainian artillery.西方官员和俄罗斯精英曾预计战争会很快结束。俄罗斯军官甚至被告知带上礼服，准备在基辅举行快速的阅兵式。但即便在俄罗斯虚假地声称对乌克兰建立“绝对制空权”时，其军队在灾难性冲向基辅的过程中因补给线拉得过长，成为了乌克兰炮火的活靶子。Days turned into weeks, which turned into months, which turned into years. The Ukrainians used ever-more-sophisticated Western weaponry for deadly strikes well behind the front lines, using coordinates provided by the United States.天变成了周，周变成了月，月变成了年。乌克兰人使用日益先进的西方武器，利用美国提供的坐标，对前线后方进行了致命打击。Along the way, Mr. Putin’s goals narrowed: from regime change — he called it the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine — to a focus on capturing all of the eastern Donbas region and keeping Ukraine out of NATO.在此过程中，普京的目标不断缩小：从政权更迭（他称之为乌克兰的“去纳粹化”和“去军事化”）转向专注于占领整个东部顿巴斯地区并阻止乌克兰加入北约。Now the toll of Mr. Putin’s war is approaching 500,000 lives. Ukraine’s military did not surrender, and President Volodymyr Zelensky is still in charge in Kyiv, leading what the Kremlin casts as a cabal of neo-Nazis.如今，普京战争的死亡人数已接近50万。乌克兰军队没有投降，总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基依然在基辅掌权，领导着被克里姆林宫描绘为“新纳粹团伙”的国家。Mr. Trump is only a week into his war, but there is no evidence that Iranian officials or soldiers are starting to surrender — maintaining the hold of a regime that Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and one of Washington’s loudest Iran hawks, refers to as “religious Nazis.”特朗普的战争才开始一周，但目前还没有证据表明有伊朗官员或士兵开始投降——这个政权依然稳固。南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员、华盛顿最强硬的鹰派人物之一林赛·格雷厄姆称该政权为“宗教纳粹”。As the Trump administration has floated shifting timelines for the Iran war, both pro- and anti-Kremlin bloggers from Russia started referring to Mr. Trump’s plan as “Tehran in three days.” It was a reference to “Kyiv in three days,” the ironic shorthand used to describe the Kremlin’s hubris in believing that Ukraine would quickly crumble.随着特朗普政府不断提出变动的伊朗战争时间表，支持和反对克里姆林宫的俄罗斯博主都开始将特朗普的计划称为“三天攻下德黑兰”。这是在讽刺“三天攻下基辅”——一个用来形容克里姆林宫自大、认为乌克兰会迅速崩溃的讽刺性简称。Mr. Putin had appeared to think he could repeat his lightning grab of Crimea in 2014, when he overruled his own advisers. Mr. Trump was riding high this year after he ordered his military to seize President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela.普京似乎曾认为他可以重复2014年闪电夺取克里米亚的行动，当时他否决了顾问们的意见。而特朗普在今年下令军队抓获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，正处于志得意满的状态。Of course, Mr. Trump could still end the Iran war soon and claim success. On Saturday, he said Iran was “being beat to HELL,” and that he was considering “complete destruction and certain death” for more areas of the country.当然，特朗普仍可能很快结束伊朗战争并宣布胜利。周六，他说伊朗正“被打得落花流水”，并表示他正考虑对该国更多地区实施“彻底毁灭和必死无疑”的打击。But Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister at the time of Russia’s invasion, said that given the expansive U.S. goals, the Trump administration may be suffering from the same overconfidence that doomed Russia’s initial war plan.但俄罗斯开始入侵时的乌克兰外长德米特罗·库列巴表示，考虑到美国宏大的目标，特朗普政府可能同样存在导致俄罗斯最初战争计划失败的那种“过度自信”。“American commentators are again talking about a ‘short war,’” Mr. Kuleba posted on social media on Friday. “They said the same about Russia’s war against Ukraine. It will be short only if Washington quietly scales down its goals, gives up on regime change in Iran, and sells a much smaller outcome as victory.”“美国评论人士又在谈论‘速战速决’了，”库列巴周五在社交媒体上发帖称。“他们在俄罗斯对乌战争中也说过同样的话。只有当华盛顿悄悄降低目标、放弃伊朗政权更迭，并将一个小得多的结果包装成胜利时，才能速战速决。”“Breaking a large country,” he added, “is hard even for the United States.”他补充道：“摧毁一个大国，即使对美国来说也很难。”尽管弗拉基米尔·V·普京总统曾预想会取得速胜，但现实却是一场旷日持久且代价高昂的战争。One striking difference is the poor performance of the Russian military and the sophistication of the U.S. and Israeli air campaign. But analysts say that the value of military firepower is limited when it is not clear what it is supposed to achieve.一个显著的区别是俄罗斯军队的拙劣表现与美以空袭行动的精密程度。但分析人士表示，当不清楚行动究竟要实现什么目标时，军事火力的价值是有限的。And the United States’ objectives keep shifting. Mr. Trump on Friday demanded “unconditional surrender” by Iran, while members of his cabinet have presented various, more limited goals, like destroying Iran’s nuclear program and its missile arsenal.此外，美国的目标一直在变。特朗普周五要求伊朗“无条件投降”，而他的内阁成员则提出了各种更有限的目标，如摧毁伊朗的核计划及其导弹库。Michael Kofman, a military analyst focusing on the Russia-Ukraine war at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the war reflects “enduring historical lessons.” They include “the need for an alignment between military means and political aims, adjusting plans once initial assumptions are disproven, the need to think through second- and third-order effects.”卡内基国际和平基金会关注俄乌战争的军事分析师迈克尔·科夫曼表示，这场战争反映了“久远的历史教训”，包括“军事手段与政治目标必须保持一致、在初始假设被证明错误后及时调整计划，以及需要深入思考二阶和三阶效应”。Maria Lipman, a visiting professor of international studies at Northwestern University who focuses on Russia, said the echoes she saw in Mr. Trump’s war began with “the very improbability of what is happening.”西北大学研究俄罗斯问题的访问教授玛丽亚·利普曼表示，她在特朗普战争中看到的一些熟悉的元素，首先就是“对正在发生的事感到难以相信”。Russians largely tuned out the possibility that their president could start an all-out invasion of their neighbor, even as he massed troops. After the initial shock, many came to accept Mr. Putin’s claim that Western aggression against Russia left him no choice but to start his “special military operation.” Hundreds of thousands signed up to join the war, attracted by lucrative signing bonuses.俄罗斯人大多曾不相信他们的总统会对邻国发动全面入侵，即使他当时正在集结军队。在最初的震惊之后，许多人开始接受普京的说法，即西方对俄罗斯的侵略让他别无选择，只能发动“特别军事行动”。数十万人因丰厚的签约费而报名参战。Hundreds of thousands more fled abroad, including to Dubai, which has been attacked by Iranian drones similar to the ones Russia has used for years against Ukraine.也有数十万人逃往国外，包括逃往最近遭到伊朗袭击的迪拜，伊朗使用的无人机，与俄罗斯这几年对付乌克兰的无人机相似。“By starting a war with Iran, Trump stepped into the unknown,” Ms. Lipman said. “I think that there is more instability in store for the United States and the American people than they realize at this time.”“通过发动对伊朗的战争，特朗普踏入了未知领域，”利普曼说。“我认为，美国和美国人民将面临比他们目前意识到的更多的动荡。”Oleg Matsnev对本文有报道贡献。Anton Troianovski是《纽约时报》莫斯科分社社长。他报道关于俄罗斯、东欧、高加索和中亚地区的新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site