Why Losing the Iran War May Be the Best Outcome for the Global Economy

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As I will explain, the outcome that looks like losing may actually be the best path forward for the world’s remaining economies. The fighting today is with respect to which parts of the world will get which energy resources, and at what prices. Even before the current conflict, there was a shortage of jet fuel and diesel. The only reasonable outcome I can think of is that the US will only be able to tap its own energy resources, plus those of its nearby neighbors (Figure 1). Consequently, the economy will gradually reorganize in ways that…