Ford Faces a Profitability Threat It Hasn't Seen Since the 2008 Financial Crisis

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That's right, Ford Credit, which acts as a banking entity for the company, is a major driver of profit for the Blue Oval. While Ford Credit is often overlooked, and typically generates only about 5% of revenue any given year, it provides 15% to 20%, sometimes more, of the company's profits. You can see in the graphic below that Ford Credit is highly profitable, except for 2008. Let's dive into why, and how, Ford is again facing such a serious threat to profits.Data source: Ford SEC filings. Chart by author.Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »That's a great long-term look at Ford Credit and its ability to generate earnings before taxes (EBT). Not only is Ford Credit a high-margin business for the automaker, it also distributes cash back to the parent company, Ford. In fact, just last year Ford Credit generated $2.6 billion in EBT and sent $1.7 billion in cash back to Ford, which can be used to fund growth in electric vehicles (EVs), among other things, or even help pay the company's lucrative dividend.Ford Credit finances some of its customer sales and leases, and for the latter the banking entity projects expected residual values and return volumes of the vehicles it leases. Actual proceeds realized by Ford Credit are upon the return of the leased vehicle, which could be lower than the initial value projected. When this happens on a large scale it can cripple profitability.That's what happened during 2008, when a significant economic downturn hurt vehicle demand and values. Further, during the 2008 financial crisis credit markets tightened, which increased Ford Credit's cost of borrowing. Fast-forward to today and there is no financial crisis, but there is a coming wave of off-lease EVs that are significantly less valuable than they were recently -- potentially leaving entities like Ford Credit on the hook for big losses.Years after consumers and early adopters jumped into the EV market, sometimes taking lease deals that were easier on monthly payments and could sometimes include incentives, those are now coming off-lease. Credit agency Experian estimates that off-lease EV volume will peak in 2028 with nearly 800,000 EVs flooding the market. Already we're seeing movement, with EVs expected to make up 15% of off-lease used vehicles by the end of 2026, compared to only 7.7% during the first quarter.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoTrending tickersBTC-USD Bitcoin USD 67,152.95 +135.42 (+0.20%)ETH-USD Ethereum USD 2,052.02 -11.03 (-0.53%)XRP-USD XRP USD 1.31 -0.01 (-0.70%)SOL-USD Solana USD 80.19 +0.04 (+0.05%)BTC-EUR Bitcoin EUR 58,289.97 +117.55 (+0.20%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersAAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. 103.91 +17.56 (+20.34%)SBAC SBA Communications Corporation 204.04 +32.48 (+18.93%)YSS York Space Systems, Inc. 28.03 +4.43 (+18.77%)VSAT Viasat, Inc. 53.69 +8.46 (+18.70%)LUNR Intuitive Machines, Inc. 23.99 +3.75 (+18.53%)Top losersKNF Knife River Corporation 73.91 -8.20 (-9.99%)WIX Wix.com Ltd. 81.95 -8.55 (-9.45%)PBH Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. 52.48 -5.20 (-9.02%)ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. 34.92 -3.36 (-8.78%)RGC Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited 30.80 -2.92 (-8.66%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 177.39 +1.64 (+0.93%)INTC Intel Corporation 50.38 +2.35 (+4.89%)NOK Nokia Oyj 8.82 +0.55 (+6.65%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 2.4100 +0.1600 (+7.11%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 360.59 -20.67 (-5.42%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events