Key Bearish FactorsGold vs US DollarPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDAvaTaylor📉 **Key Bearish Factors** 💼 Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data cools interest rate cut expectations: The US March non-farm payroll data released last Friday significantly exceeded expectations, demonstrating a much stronger-than-expected job market resilience. This completely reversed market expectations for a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Currently, the market expects only a 2% probability of a June rate cut, pushing the window for a rate cut to after September, and even raising the possibility of the Fed restarting rate hikes. The rising hawkish expectations from the Fed have led to a strong rise in the US dollar and US Treasury yields. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold's attractiveness has significantly decreased, putting strong downward pressure on gold prices in the short term. This negative factor will continue to unfold early next week and may trigger a further pullback in gold prices. 📊 Soaring US Treasury yields significantly increase holding costs: The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note broke through 4.5%, reaching a recent high. The rise in real interest rates has significantly increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, further suppressing gold demand. For institutional investors, when US Treasury yields continue to rise, funds will flow from the precious metals market to the bond market, leading to capital outflows from gold and exacerbating short-term downward pressure on gold prices. If next week's CPI data exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields may further break through 4.6%, increasing downward pressure on gold prices.