Iranian forces were hunting for a missing US pilot on Saturday from one of two warplanes downed over Iran and the Gulf, Reuters reported.Any potential capture of the pilot would provide Iran with leverage and raise the stakes for the US in an escalating war that shows no sign of ending six weeks in.Iran seems to be stepping up efforts to get to the pilot before the US does. On Saturday, the search for the pilot focused on a mountainous region in the country’s southwestern province of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad where the plane came down. The regional governor promised a commendation for anyone who captured or killed “forces of the hostile enemy”.The Tasnim News Agency, which is close to the Revolutionary Guards, also urged residents to patrol the region “with their weapons” in preparation for a possible confrontation with US rescue teams, according to a Financial Times report. And an anchor on a TV channel affiliated with Iranian state television urged residents to hand over any “enemy pilot” to the police, The New York Times reported.The pilot would be a prize catch for Iran, especially considering that it has a history of detaining Western citizens — in this case, the pilot would technically be called a prisoner of war, not a hostage — and using them as bargaining chips.Also in Explained | How the deepening Gulf-Iran divide pushed Arab states towards US and IsraelBut capturing a US service member, which would be a first for Iran, raises the risk of the US escalating a war it began in the first place — one that has sent economic shockwaves through the world.Here’s a look at how hostage-taking became a key part of Iran’s foreign policy, and why the case of the missing airman is so significant in this regard.Story continues below this adOn February 27, just a day before the US and Israel launched their attacks on Iran, Washington DC designated the Islamic republic as a state sponsor of wrongful detention. This was the first time a country was formally labeled under that framework which provides for economic sanctions, export controls and visa restrictions.According to the thinktank French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), Iran uses the detention of Western nationals, dual citizens, or Iranian citizens residing in Europe, Australia or the US as leverage in diplomatic negotiations. This is what is known as “hostage diplomacy”.“This practice aims to exert pressure to secure political, economic, or diplomatic concessions as part of Tehran’s asymmetric response strategy. Hostage diplomacy remains a controversial yet effective tool from the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, given its context of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation,” says the thinktank.Graphs, Data and Perspectives | Between oil shock and El Niño, how high can inflation go in India?What laid the groundwork for this was the Iran hostage crisis of 1979. Iranian students stormed the US Embassy in Tehran on November 4 and took over 50 Americans hostage demanding the return of the deeply unpopular and deposed Shah. The crisis lasted 444 days, until January 20, 1981, when the hostages were released after negotiations. The entire episode — which also included a botched rescue attempt called Operation Eagle Claw — cost Jimmy Carter the 1980 presidential elections and, more importantly, profoundly changed the trajectory of US-Iranian relations.Story continues below this adAccording to a 2024 IFRI analysis, at least 66 foreign or dual nationals were detained by Iranian authorities since 2010. They have often been used as bargaining chips in tensions between Tehran and Western states, it says.One of the examples illustrating this is the March 2016 arrest of British-Iranian journalist and charity worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe at the Tehran airport. She was then sentenced to five years in prison for allegedly plotting to overthrow the government, and running an “online journalism course which was aimed at recruiting and training people to spread propaganda against Iran”.In 2022, the UK paid around £400 million to secure her release. These were UK’s old dues to Iran from a pre-1979 Shah-era deal for purchasing tanks — which Britain had cancelled after his regime collapsed.In January 2016, Iran and the US organised a prisoner swap that was timed with the final implementation of the 2015 nuclear deal. Tehran released four US-Iranian prisoners including Washington Post correspondent Jason Rezaian. The US, meanwhile, granted clemency to seven Iranians, six of whom also had dual nationality with the US.Story continues below this adThe IFRI analysis states that the hostage-taking, particularly involving European citizens, accelerated after the US withdrew from the nuclear agreement in May 2018.Currently, at least four American nationals are believed to be jailed in Iran, according to a CBS report. Two of them are 49-year-old journalist Abdolreza “Reza” Valizadeh, whom the US State Department formally designated as “wrongfully detained” by Iran in May 2025, and 61-year-old Kamran Hekmati, who was arrested in July 2025 while visiting his family in Iran. The identities of the other two are not known.What this means for the USThe war, which has sent economic shockwaves cascading through the world, already has been a huge financial drain for the US and is deeply unpopular domestically.The price of petrol (gas) has crossed the psychological barrier of $4-per gallon in many US states and is inching towards the $5 mark.Story continues below this adThe conflict has killed 13 US military service members, with more than 300 wounded, according to the US Central Command.Now, Iran’s downing of an F-15E jet and an A-10 Warthog — the first US warplanes to be shot down in two decades — will raise questions over President Donald Trump’s claim that the US completely controls Iranian airspace.This indicates that Iran may not be as weakened as Trump would have the world believe, and point to a longer conflict. And the prospect of an Iranian capture of a US service member will only deepen the discontent over the war at home. It could also potentially tilt the numbers in the Democratic Party’s favour in the November midterm elections.A frustrated Trump is reportedly considering a broader cabinet shake-up in the wake of Attorney General Pam Bondi’s removal this week, people familiar with the discussions said.Story continues below this adAny potential reshuffling could serve as a reset for the White House as it confronts rising gas prices, falling ratings and worries for Republicans heading into the midterms.The White House has now approached US Congress to hike the US defence budget to $1.5 trillion, a huge increase that could potentially mark the largest expansion in American military spending since World War II. This funding request is distinct from the $200 billion that the Pentagon sought specifically for continuing the fighting in Iran.