US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical + Fundamental Analysis (Apr 3)US Dollar IndexCAPITALCOM:DXYJunmadayagUS Dollar Index (DXY) Technical + Fundamental Analysis (Apr 3, 2026 ~99.78) Technical Recap (Simple): Daily: •Recovery from 2025 lows, but stuck under major weekly S&R resistance (~101). 50EMA (orange) above price short-term; 200EMA (red) still capping. RSI ~56 (mild bullish, room to run). 4H: •Clear uptrend along ascending support line since Feb. Testing higher weekly levels. RSI ~52 (neutral-bullish). Today’s Key Fundamental Catalyst: US March Employment Situation Report (Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings) released at 8:30 AM ET. •Stronger-than-expected jobs/wage data → higher inflation fears → delays Fed rate cuts → bullish for USD (supports “higher for longer” rates). •Weaker data → easier Fed path → bearish for USD. Ongoing Middle East tensions (Iran conflict) add safe-haven demand for USD, while US as net energy exporter benefits from higher oil prices. Trump’s tariff policies create uncertainty but reinforce USD strength via risk aversion and yield support. Bullish Case: •Strong jobs data + hold above 99.78. •Break & close above weekly resistance ~101. •RSI rises above 55–60; 50EMA stays supportive. → Targets: 101.49 → 104.25. Uptrend accelerates on safe-haven + rate differential flows. Bearish Case: •Disappointing jobs data (weak payrolls, cooling wages). •Rejection at 101 or drop below 98.80–98.64 support. •RSI falls below 50. → Targets: 98.00 or lower toward 95–96. Downtrend resumes. Simple Bottom Line: DXY at critical resistance technically, with today’s NFP report as the immediate trigger. Bullish bias if data/hot geopolitics support USD; bearish if soft data sparks rate-cut hopes. Watch 101 level closely this week.